Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.3 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 72.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
GLNG · Why this verdict
Why Golar LNG (GLNG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Golar LNG shows strong 72% YoY growth and 26.5% upside to the analyst target, but earnings are expected to decline about 57% from a cyclical peak, cash conversion is a red flag and momentum is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 72% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $130M versus $62.5M two quarters earlier in the series, backing a growth score of 10.0. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above $125M, though the next-quarter estimate of $84.8M implies a step down to watch. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $84.8M is well below the latest $130M, which suggests the growth rate will fade as contracts roll. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 57% as the cycle peaks, and forward P/E of 72.7x versus trailing 31x signals shrinking profits against the current price. Bear case | Forward earnings estimates should stabilize rather than fall further so the forward P/E moves back below 40x. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong growth and 31% margins may mean a lower earnings base is still highly profitable, so the decline could already be priced in. | ||
EPS missed in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including -66% in March, for an average surprise of -19.2%, though the last two reports were beats. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-18 report, extending the recent 2-quarter beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterMisses of -66% and -39% show large estimate errors, and a short beat streak may not signal a lasting turn. | ||
Earnings quality carries a red flag, with free cash flow at -233% of net income, even though margins are 31% and the Piotroski score is 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income should turn positive within 12 months as capital spending on new assets tapers. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy growth capital spending makes free cash flow negative by design for an LNG infrastructure builder, so the metric may overstate weakness. | ||
The analyst target of $57.69 is 26.5% above the $45.61 price, offering upside if estimates hold. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $57.69 target over 12 months as growth is delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is poor at 1.7/10 with the stock below its 200-day average and a put/call ratio of 2.12, so the market is not backing the target. | ||
Revenue is growing 72% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $130M versus $62.5M two quarters earlier in the series, backing a growth score of 10.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above $125M, though the next-quarter estimate of $84.8M implies a step down to watch.
CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of $84.8M is well below the latest $130M, which suggests the growth rate will fade as contracts roll.
Earnings are expected to decline about 57% as the cycle peaks, and forward P/E of 72.7x versus trailing 31x signals shrinking profits against the current price.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates should stabilize rather than fall further so the forward P/E moves back below 40x.
CounterStrong growth and 31% margins may mean a lower earnings base is still highly profitable, so the decline could already be priced in.
EPS missed in 2 of the last 4 quarters, including -66% in March, for an average surprise of -19.2%, though the last two reports were beats.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-18 report, extending the recent 2-quarter beat streak.
CounterMisses of -66% and -39% show large estimate errors, and a short beat streak may not signal a lasting turn.
Earnings quality carries a red flag, with free cash flow at -233% of net income, even though margins are 31% and the Piotroski score is 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income should turn positive within 12 months as capital spending on new assets tapers.
CounterHeavy growth capital spending makes free cash flow negative by design for an LNG infrastructure builder, so the metric may overstate weakness.
The analyst target of $57.69 is 26.5% above the $45.61 price, offering upside if estimates hold.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $57.69 target over 12 months as growth is delivered.
CounterMomentum is poor at 1.7/10 with the stock below its 200-day average and a put/call ratio of 2.12, so the market is not backing the target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -233% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 72% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 5.6 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.25
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:5.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.01
Upside
+26.5%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:5.0>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Catalyst at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.6, and Technical at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.6, Momentum at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $100M from the latest $130M.
- P2Cyclical Earnings Decline
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 90x from the current 72.7x as estimates fall further.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Poor Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -100% for 2 more quarters.
- P5Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $42.95, the stop level, from the current $45.61.