Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
FSLR · Why this verdict
Why First Solar (FSLR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A 24% year-over-year revenue growth rate and a near-perfect financial health score underpin the long-term quality case, but momentum below its minimum threshold, a 10% short float, and a leverage penalty on a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 create near-term headwinds that favor patience over adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has grown 24% year over year, and three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises — most recently an 8.95% beat — indicating a business executing consistently above consensus expectations. Growth | Revenue growth sustains above 15% year over year and quarterly earnings surprises remain positive for at least three of the next four reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe lone miss in the last four quarters (a 6.35% shortfall) shows guidance discipline can slip; if growth decelerates while leverage remains elevated, the valuation multiple could compress sharply. | ||
Operating and net margins stand at 31%, and the company's financial health scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-quality businesses in its peer set. Quality | Operating margins remain above 25% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at only 69% of net income — flagged as a quality concern — meaning reported earnings overstate cash generation and the true capital-generation capacity is meaningfully weaker than headline margins imply. | ||
Price momentum has failed to clear the minimum required threshold, and 10% of the float is held short, creating a technical and positioning overhang that limits near-term appreciation even as the underlying business performs. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold and short interest declines below 6% of the float within the next two to three quarters as continued earnings beats reduce short pressure. | →Stable |
| CounterSustained earnings beats could trigger short-covering that rapidly reverses the momentum deficit, making the current setup a contrarian opportunity rather than a structural warning. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 carries a meaningful leverage penalty that offsets otherwise strong fundamentals and introduces financial risk if earnings come in below expectations. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 4.0 over the next four quarters as strong cash generation is applied to balance sheet reduction. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf 24% revenue growth continues and free cash flow conversion improves, leverage could normalize naturally — removing the penalty and re-rating the stock toward a higher multiple without requiring external capital. | ||
Revenue has grown 24% year over year, and three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises — most recently an 8.95% beat — indicating a business executing consistently above consensus expectations.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 15% year over year and quarterly earnings surprises remain positive for at least three of the next four reported periods.
CounterThe lone miss in the last four quarters (a 6.35% shortfall) shows guidance discipline can slip; if growth decelerates while leverage remains elevated, the valuation multiple could compress sharply.
Operating and net margins stand at 31%, and the company's financial health scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-quality businesses in its peer set.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 25% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters.
CounterFree cash flow converts at only 69% of net income — flagged as a quality concern — meaning reported earnings overstate cash generation and the true capital-generation capacity is meaningfully weaker than headline margins imply.
Price momentum has failed to clear the minimum required threshold, and 10% of the float is held short, creating a technical and positioning overhang that limits near-term appreciation even as the underlying business performs.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above the 4.5 threshold and short interest declines below 6% of the float within the next two to three quarters as continued earnings beats reduce short pressure.
CounterSustained earnings beats could trigger short-covering that rapidly reverses the momentum deficit, making the current setup a contrarian opportunity rather than a structural warning.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 5.9 carries a meaningful leverage penalty that offsets otherwise strong fundamentals and introduces financial risk if earnings come in below expectations.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio declines below 4.0 over the next four quarters as strong cash generation is applied to balance sheet reduction.
CounterIf 24% revenue growth continues and free cash flow conversion improves, leverage could normalize naturally — removing the penalty and re-rating the stock toward a higher multiple without requiring external capital.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.6 |
| EPS growth | 6.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -4%
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,756,285 (0.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 1.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 2.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.3>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
5.43
Upside
+43.1%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.9 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Sentiment at 7.6, and Quality at 7.4; the weakest are Growth at 4.2, Technical at 4.3, and Catalyst at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.43 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2High Quality Margins Financial Health
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% of the float for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Leverage Drag On Fundamentals
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.