Skip to main content
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.Hold5.9·$268.07-1.14%
Open full analysis

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $268.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass.

First Solar is the largest thin-film CdTe PV solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, with facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue comes from module sales to utilities, developers, and commercial customers; the U.S. accounted for 96% of 2025 net... Read more

$268.07+17.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 9 Solar
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.94%
Stop $248.60Target $314.53(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$243.58-9.1%26 analysts
$314.53our TP
$268.07price
$243.58mean
$150
$330

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $268.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.70)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$29.1B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn30.7%
ROE18.4%
Rev Growth23.6%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts47

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV76%elevated
Max Pain$170-36.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States96%
    10-K Item 1: 'Multiple markets within the United States, which accounted for 96% of our 2025 net sales'
  • HIGHSupplierCdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
    10-K Item 1A: 'Several of our key raw materials and components, in particular CdTe, tellurium, products containing tellurium, and substrate glass... are either single-sourced or sourced from a limited number of suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 1.02MEDIUM
    First Solar terminated its prior credit arrangements and on February 13, 2026 entered a new $1.5B senior unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase as administrative agent. No reason cited beyond routine refinancing.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVE8K FLAG 1.02Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $221.62Resistance $320.95

Price Targets

$249
$315
A.Upside+17.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.0% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $268.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $314.53 (+17.3%), stop $248.60 (−7.8%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $314.53 (+17.7% upside). Target $314.53 (+17.3%), stop $248.60 (−7.8%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $248.60.

What are the risks of investing in FSLR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (96.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is FSLR overvalued or undervalued?

First Solar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FSLR?

47 analysts cover FSLR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $244.

What does First Solar, Inc. do?First Solar is the largest thin-film CdTe PV solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, with facilities in...

First Solar is the largest thin-film CdTe PV solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, with facilities in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue comes from module sales to utilities, developers, and commercial customers; the U.S. accounted for 96% of 2025 net sales driven by IRA-related domestic demand. Its non-Chinese supply chain and 45X manufacturing tax credits are key competitive moats.

Related stocks: RUN (Sunrun Inc.) · SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.) · NXT (Nextpower Inc.) · ENPH (Enphase Energy, Inc.)
Home Stocks FSLR

Latest news

Latest News

MarketWatch47d ago
GuruFocus47d agoEarnings
MarketBeat47d agoAnalyst
StockStory48d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance54d ago
Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai54d agoEarnings
Yahoo Finance54d agoEarnings
MSN55d ago
GuruFocus55d ago
Yahoo Finance48d agoEarnings
Investing.com46d ago
Yahoo Finance46d ago
Yahoo! Finance Canada46d ago
StockStory46d agoEarnings
TradingView46d agoEarnings
Insider Monkey47d ago
MarketBeat54d agoEarnings
MarketWatch49d ago
MarketBeat49d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat49d ago
Loading more...