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First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Solar

Sell if holding. At $206.39, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass.

First Solar is the largest thin film (CdTe) solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere with over 93 GW sold worldwide and manufacturing in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue is primarily from module sales to solar project developers, utilities, and... Read more

$206.39+4.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 9 Solar
Stop $195.65Target $220.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$245.07+18.7%29 analysts
$220.56our TP
$206.39price
$245.07mean
$150
$313

Sell if holding. At $206.39, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
Thin upside margin: 4.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.0
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$21.7B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn29.3%
ROE17.4%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta1.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts49

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.59bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$275+33.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass
    10-K Item 1A: 'key raw materials and components, in particular CdTe, tellurium, products containing tellurium, and substrate glass...are either single-sourced or sourced from a limited number of suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 1.02MEDIUM
    On February 13, 2026, First Solar terminated its prior credit arrangement upon entering a new $1.5B unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase as administrative agent, maturing in 5 years.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
4.7
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $185.13Resistance $211.50

Price Targets

$196
$221
A.Upside+6.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $206.39, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $195.65. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $220.56 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $195.65. Stop-loss: $195.65.

What are the risks of investing in FSLR?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-sourced CdTe, tellurium, and substrate glass; Thin upside margin: 4.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 6.9): -1.5.

Is FSLR overvalued or undervalued?

First Solar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FSLR?

49 analysts cover FSLR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $245.

What does First Solar, Inc. do?First Solar is the largest thin film (CdTe) solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere with over 93 GW sold...

First Solar is the largest thin film (CdTe) solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere with over 93 GW sold worldwide and manufacturing in the U.S., Malaysia, Vietnam, and India. Revenue is primarily from module sales to solar project developers, utilities, and independent power producers; the company benefits from U.S. IRA Section 45X manufacturing credits.

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