Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.8 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
FRBT · Why this verdict
Why Forbright (FRBT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Forbright is a cheaply valued small-cap bank (forward P/E 7.5x, PEG 0.34) with 13.8% analyst upside, but a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, weak growth and a recent earnings miss mean the discount is partly earned.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 7.5x and PEG of 0.34 make the shares attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E moves toward 10x as earnings are delivered, re-rating the stock. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLow P/E is typical of banks with weak balance sheet scores, and a PEG this low depends on earnings forecasts that growth data (earnings growth component 0.0) does not support. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is only 2/9 despite 24% margins, which points to deteriorating fundamentals beneath a decent headline margin. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score rises to at least 5/9 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA recently reorganized bank can show a low F-Score from one-time changes, and the quality score still reaches 5.0 out of 10. | ||
The only quarter in the record missed badly, at $0.09 versus a $0.21 estimate, with earnings due in 5 days. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats consensus in the upcoming report and the following quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith a single quarter of history the data is thin; one miss of this size may reflect a restructuring charge rather than the run rate. | ||
The $19.79 analyst target is 13.8% above the $17.40 price, with 8.1% downside to the stop level. Upside pct | Price rises toward the $19.79 target as results confirm earnings power. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReward-to-risk of 1.7 is modest for a stock with weak growth, and an earnings disappointment in 5 days could erase it. | ||
Growth is flagged as weak, with earnings growth scoring 0.0 out of 10 and revenue growth only 6.2. Bear case | Earnings growth component improves above 5.0 as revenue builds. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue reported at $129.1M versus $123.3M a year earlier is positive, and the data is flagged as divergent, so the weakness may be overstated. | ||
A forward P/E of 7.5x and PEG of 0.34 make the shares attractively valued.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E moves toward 10x as earnings are delivered, re-rating the stock.
CounterLow P/E is typical of banks with weak balance sheet scores, and a PEG this low depends on earnings forecasts that growth data (earnings growth component 0.0) does not support.
The Piotroski F-Score is only 2/9 despite 24% margins, which points to deteriorating fundamentals beneath a decent headline margin.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score rises to at least 5/9 within 12 months.
CounterA recently reorganized bank can show a low F-Score from one-time changes, and the quality score still reaches 5.0 out of 10.
The only quarter in the record missed badly, at $0.09 versus a $0.21 estimate, with earnings due in 5 days.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in the upcoming report and the following quarter.
CounterWith a single quarter of history the data is thin; one miss of this size may reflect a restructuring charge rather than the run rate.
The $19.79 analyst target is 13.8% above the $17.40 price, with 8.1% downside to the stop level.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the $19.79 target as results confirm earnings power.
CounterReward-to-risk of 1.7 is modest for a stock with weak growth, and an earnings disappointment in 5 days could erase it.
Growth is flagged as weak, with earnings growth scoring 0.0 out of 10 and revenue growth only 6.2.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings growth component improves above 5.0 as revenue builds.
CounterRevenue reported at $129.1M versus $123.3M a year earlier is positive, and the data is flagged as divergent, so the weakness may be overstated.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 9.2 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.56
Upside
+14.8%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Value at 8.4 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Growth at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.56 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Bank Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from the current 7.5x.
- P2Weak Piotroski Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 from the current 2.
- P3Recent Earnings Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $17.40, eliminating upside from the current price.
- P5Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth exceeds 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.