Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
- ▸Attractively valued
FIS · Why this verdict
Why Fidelity National Information S (FIS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fidelity National Information Services trades at a forward P/E of 5.6x with revenue up 29% YoY, a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a 4.7% dividend yield, but it is 44% off its high in a downtrend, and 12.8% upside against 14.5% downside gives a reward-to-risk of 0.88.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 29% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $2,616M in June 2025 to $3,377M in June 2026. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $3,433M estimate next quarter and keep growing above 15% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue jumped from $2,812M to $3,295M in a single quarter, which suggests an acquisition or consolidation effect rather than organic growth. | ||
Forward P/E is 5.6x with a PEG of 0.25, and earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $1.48 in August 2026. Bull case | EPS should beat estimates again at the 2026-11-04 report and stay above $1.40 per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February 2026 report was a miss, and a low multiple may reflect investor doubts about the sustainability of earnings in a stock that fell 44% from its high. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 1.3 triggers a leverage penalty, and FCF/NI conversion of 79% is flagged as an earnings quality warning, with a current ratio score of only 2.1. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should stay below 1.3 and FCF/NI conversion rise above 90%. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins of 28% and a dividend safety score of 8.5 show the business generates enough cash to service its debt and its dividend. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day average with a slope of -9.1% over 30 days after a bear rally to RSI 79, and the $42.34 analyst target is 12.8% above the $37.53 price against 14.5% downside. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average and the reward-to-risk ratio rise above 1.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRising OBV and a MACD reading of 10.0 show buying is returning, and analysts see 25% upside, so the rally may mark the end of the downtrend. | ||
Revenue grew 29% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $2,616M in June 2025 to $3,377M in June 2026.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $3,433M estimate next quarter and keep growing above 15% YoY.
CounterQuarterly revenue jumped from $2,812M to $3,295M in a single quarter, which suggests an acquisition or consolidation effect rather than organic growth.
Forward P/E is 5.6x with a PEG of 0.25, and earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $1.48 in August 2026.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again at the 2026-11-04 report and stay above $1.40 per quarter.
CounterThe February 2026 report was a miss, and a low multiple may reflect investor doubts about the sustainability of earnings in a stock that fell 44% from its high.
Debt-to-equity of 1.3 triggers a leverage penalty, and FCF/NI conversion of 79% is flagged as an earnings quality warning, with a current ratio score of only 2.1.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should stay below 1.3 and FCF/NI conversion rise above 90%.
CounterMargins of 28% and a dividend safety score of 8.5 show the business generates enough cash to service its debt and its dividend.
The stock trades below its 200-day average with a slope of -9.1% over 30 days after a bear rally to RSI 79, and the $42.34 analyst target is 12.8% above the $37.53 price against 14.5% downside.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average and the reward-to-risk ratio rise above 1.5.
CounterRising OBV and a MACD reading of 10.0 show buying is returning, and analysts see 25% upside, so the rally may mark the end of the downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.1 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.6 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $57,694 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 1.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 4.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.33
Upside
+16.1%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 63
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.33 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 8.7, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Insider at 3.5, and Momentum at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $3,200M.
- P2Cheap Valuation And Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Leverage And Cash Conversion
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 1.8.
- P4Downtrend With Limited Asymmetry
Trip ifShare price drops to $35.39 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $37.53.