Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.94
- ▸Attractively valued
EXLS · Why this verdict
Why ExlService Holdings (EXLS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 8.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 5.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 8.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $148,257 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Critical news event: fraud..
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.33
Upside
+22.4%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Critical news event: fraud.. The 10-dimension scores remain Quality at 7.5 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.