Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
EVER · Why this verdict
Why EverQuote (EVER) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EverQuote is a high-quality, rapidly growing online insurance marketplace (ROE 54%, revenue up 25% YoY, 3 of 4 earnings beats) trading at a low forward multiple, but 91% automotive-insurance concentration, 30% short interest and heavy insider selling cap the near-term reward-to-risk at 0.86.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EverQuote earns excellent returns: ROE of 54%, margins of 15%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 35% and quality score above 7.0 through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF/NI is only 55%, flagged as an earnings quality warning, so reported profits may overstate cash generation. | ||
Revenue grew from $156.6M to $195.1M in the year to June 2026, and earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters. Bull case | Quarterly revenue should exceed $203M next quarter, in line with the estimate, and keep growing above 15% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest quarter was only inline (0.52% surprise) and revenue was flat versus the prior quarter, hinting that growth is decelerating. | ||
Automotive insurance revenue makes up 91.0% of the business, tying results to carrier advertising budgets in one product line. Bear case | Automotive share should fall below 85% as home and other insurance lines scale. | →Stable |
| CounterCarrier ad spend has been strong and a dominant category with high returns may keep compounding, so concentration may stay a manageable rather than realized risk. | ||
Forward P/E of 7.4x and an analyst target of $25.66 look attractive, but upside is 12.9% against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.86 that is below the 1.5 minimum. Reward-to-risk math | Reward-to-risk should rise above 1.5 after earnings, via a pullback toward the $21.72 entry level or a higher analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 15% downside is a default stop-based figure; with 30% short interest and a possible squeeze, realized upside could far exceed the analyst target. | ||
Insiders sold $1.72M (0.214% of market cap) across 16 sells with no buys in 90 days, while short interest sits at 30%. Key risks | Insider net selling should drop below 0.1% of market cap and short interest below 25%. | →Stable |
| CounterRoutine sales by executives are often pre-scheduled and unrelated to outlook, and institutions are accumulating. | ||
EverQuote earns excellent returns: ROE of 54%, margins of 15%, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 35% and quality score above 7.0 through the next four quarters.
CounterFCF/NI is only 55%, flagged as an earnings quality warning, so reported profits may overstate cash generation.
Revenue grew from $156.6M to $195.1M in the year to June 2026, and earnings beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed $203M next quarter, in line with the estimate, and keep growing above 15% YoY.
CounterThe latest quarter was only inline (0.52% surprise) and revenue was flat versus the prior quarter, hinting that growth is decelerating.
Automotive insurance revenue makes up 91.0% of the business, tying results to carrier advertising budgets in one product line.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Automotive share should fall below 85% as home and other insurance lines scale.
CounterCarrier ad spend has been strong and a dominant category with high returns may keep compounding, so concentration may stay a manageable rather than realized risk.
Forward P/E of 7.4x and an analyst target of $25.66 look attractive, but upside is 12.9% against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.86 that is below the 1.5 minimum.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Reward-to-risk should rise above 1.5 after earnings, via a pullback toward the $21.72 entry level or a higher analyst target.
CounterThe 15% downside is a default stop-based figure; with 30% short interest and a possible squeeze, realized upside could far exceed the analyst target.
Insiders sold $1.72M (0.214% of market cap) across 16 sells with no buys in 90 days, while short interest sits at 30%.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Insider net selling should drop below 0.1% of market cap and short interest below 25%.
CounterRoutine sales by executives are often pre-scheduled and unrelated to outlook, and institutions are accumulating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 54%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 9.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 25% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,721,339 (0.227% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
8.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| put call | 9.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 28% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 99%
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum; Earnings in 4 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:POOR_ASYMMETRY|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Communication Services:4/10:self_excluded
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- INSIDER:0.23%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
0.98
Upside
+14.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.0<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.98.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Value at 8.8, and Quality at 8.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Momentum at 4.8, and Insider at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.98 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from the current 8.0.
- P2Consistent Growth And Beats
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $190M, below the March 2026 quarter's $190.9M.
- P3Auto Insurance Concentration
Trip ifAutomotive insurance share of revenue exceeds 95%.
- P4Valuation Versus Limited Reward
Trip ifShare price rises above $25.66, reaching the analyst target, leaving upside below 0%.
- P5Insider Selling And Short Interest
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over 90 days.