Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
EVER · Why this verdict
Why EverQuote (EVER) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EverQuote has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 63%, the strongest beat record in the model's catalyst notes. Earnings | The perfect beat streak should continue at the next report in 30 days. | →Stable |
| CounterA beat streak this consistent, at an average surprise this large, often signals that consensus estimates are being managed conservatively rather than the business dramatically outperforming, and the streak could break the moment guidance catches up to reality. | ||
EverQuote combines a cheap valuation (forward P/E of 8.1x, PEG of 0.06) with compounder-quality fundamentals: 56% ROE, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x and the value score above 6.0 as long as the valuation gap persists. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality warning, with FCF only 55% of net income, and a failing Rule of 40 score of 23, suggesting growth plus profitability combined are weaker than the ROE figure alone implies. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst-target-derived upside and been downgraded as a result, with the asymmetry gate failing at -0.55 as price hit the $24.52 target while trading at $24.86. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should stay negative as long as the stock trades at or above its price target. | →Stable |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage weighing the price-target dimension, the target itself may be conservative and due for an upward revision following the perfect 4-quarter beat streak. | ||
Momentum is showing late-cycle distribution risk, with RSI at an extreme 89 and the 30-day moving-average slope flattening or turning negative even as on-balance volume still rises. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool from 89 without a sharp price breakdown if the rally is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe death-cross gate is being formally exempted because both quality and momentum remain above their respective thresholds, suggesting the engine itself views this overextension as lower-risk than a typical late-cycle top. | ||
The risk notes flag a short-squeeze setup, with 18% of float sold short against a quality score of 7.5, and price currently trading above the $12 max-pain level. Risk breakdown | Short interest should remain elevated above 15% as long as the squeeze setup persists as a live catalyst. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest can also simply reflect informed bearish conviction about slowing lead-generation demand in the insurance-marketplace industry, rather than guaranteeing a forced short-covering rally. | ||
EverQuote has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 63%, the strongest beat record in the model's catalyst notes.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The perfect beat streak should continue at the next report in 30 days.
CounterA beat streak this consistent, at an average surprise this large, often signals that consensus estimates are being managed conservatively rather than the business dramatically outperforming, and the streak could break the moment guidance catches up to reality.
EverQuote combines a cheap valuation (forward P/E of 8.1x, PEG of 0.06) with compounder-quality fundamentals: 56% ROE, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x and the value score above 6.0 as long as the valuation gap persists.
CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality warning, with FCF only 55% of net income, and a failing Rule of 40 score of 23, suggesting growth plus profitability combined are weaker than the ROE figure alone implies.
The stock has already reached its analyst-target-derived upside and been downgraded as a result, with the asymmetry gate failing at -0.55 as price hit the $24.52 target while trading at $24.86.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay negative as long as the stock trades at or above its price target.
CounterWith light analyst coverage weighing the price-target dimension, the target itself may be conservative and due for an upward revision following the perfect 4-quarter beat streak.
Momentum is showing late-cycle distribution risk, with RSI at an extreme 89 and the 30-day moving-average slope flattening or turning negative even as on-balance volume still rises.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool from 89 without a sharp price breakdown if the rally is durable.
CounterThe death-cross gate is being formally exempted because both quality and momentum remain above their respective thresholds, suggesting the engine itself views this overextension as lower-risk than a typical late-cycle top.
The risk notes flag a short-squeeze setup, with 18% of float sold short against a quality score of 7.5, and price currently trading above the $12 max-pain level.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should remain elevated above 15% as long as the squeeze setup persists as a live catalyst.
CounterHigh short interest can also simply reflect informed bearish conviction about slowing lead-generation demand in the insurance-marketplace industry, rather than guaranteeing a forced short-covering rally.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EverQuote pairs a perfect earnings-beat streak and cheap compounder-quality metrics with a short-squeeze setup, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and momentum looks stretched at a late-cycle extreme.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 56%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 75 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $814,291 (0.088% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 6.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 18% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Above max pain $8
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.1% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.8>=7.5+momentum=5.2>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.54
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 8.1 and asymmetric R:R of -0.54.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Value at 8.0, and Quality at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Momentum at 5.2, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.54 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the next report (2026-08-03 print).
- P2Cheap Multiple Strong Compounder
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.1x.
- P3Upside Exhausted Analyst Target
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -0.55.
- P4Overbought Late Cycle Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 alongside a price decline of more than 10% from current levels.
- P5Short Squeeze Setup
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float from the current 18%, unwinding the squeeze setup.