Value
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.9 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.8x
EROK · Why this verdict
Why EagleRock Land (EROK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
EagleRock Land is growing revenue 74% YoY with a wide moat and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, with 32.0% upside to the analyst target, but earnings are expected to fall about 64% from a commodity-cycle peak and the stock is oversold below its 200-day average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings are expected to decline about 64% from a commodity-cycle peak, with a forward P/E of 19x versus a trailing 7x. Bear case | Forward earnings stabilize and the forward P/E falls back toward 10x over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest EPS of $0.56 beat the $0.13 estimate by 321%, so analysts may be underestimating earnings and the expected decline may not materialize. | ||
EagleRock is growing revenue 74% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $41.5M in the latest quarter versus $23.9M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays near the $44.1M next-quarter estimate and YoY growth stays above 30%. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is lumpy for a land company (from $23.1M to $41.5M in one quarter), and the 74% rate comes off a small base that cannot repeat. | ||
EagleRock has a wide economic moat and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, with a gross margin score of 9.5/10. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and quality stays near 6.5 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores 0.0 and peer quality rank is just 0.9, so the moat has not yet shown up in profits relative to peers. | ||
The $24.07 analyst target is 32.0% above the $18.24 price, with a reward-to-risk of 2.7 and light analyst coverage. Analyst target | Price moves toward $24.07 as earnings are reported, closing part of the 32.0% gap. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLight coverage dampens the signal, and the single data point of earnings history means targets can reset quickly if earnings fall as expected. | ||
Momentum is 4.1/10 with an RSI of 28 and price below the 200-day average, though on-balance volume is rising, which points to accumulation near lows. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 from 4.1. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCapitulation signals can persist, and the next report in 10 days could push price lower if the expected earnings drop shows up. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 64% from a commodity-cycle peak, with a forward P/E of 19x versus a trailing 7x.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings stabilize and the forward P/E falls back toward 10x over the next 12 months.
CounterThe latest EPS of $0.56 beat the $0.13 estimate by 321%, so analysts may be underestimating earnings and the expected decline may not materialize.
EagleRock is growing revenue 74% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $41.5M in the latest quarter versus $23.9M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays near the $44.1M next-quarter estimate and YoY growth stays above 30%.
CounterRevenue is lumpy for a land company (from $23.1M to $41.5M in one quarter), and the 74% rate comes off a small base that cannot repeat.
EagleRock has a wide economic moat and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, with a gross margin score of 9.5/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and quality stays near 6.5 over 12 months.
CounterNet margin scores 0.0 and peer quality rank is just 0.9, so the moat has not yet shown up in profits relative to peers.
The $24.07 analyst target is 32.0% above the $18.24 price, with a reward-to-risk of 2.7 and light analyst coverage.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward $24.07 as earnings are reported, closing part of the 32.0% gap.
CounterLight coverage dampens the signal, and the single data point of earnings history means targets can reset quickly if earnings fall as expected.
Momentum is 4.1/10 with an RSI of 28 and price below the 200-day average, though on-balance volume is rising, which points to accumulation near lows.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 from 4.1.
CounterCapitulation signals can persist, and the next report in 10 days could push price lower if the expected earnings drop shows up.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 9.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 74% YoY
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 0.9 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.13
Upside
+17.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8, and Value at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from current 74%.
- P2Wide Moat Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 of 9 from current 7.
- P3Cycle Peak Earnings Decline
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from current 19x as earnings estimates fall.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $18.24, the current price, from $24.07.
- P5Oversold Below Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $16.96 stop level, more than 7% under the current $18.24.