Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
EPC · Why this verdict
Why Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Edgewell generates an 18.8% free cash flow yield with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, even though the quality score of 3.9 sits just below the engine's 4.0 floor due to a lack of competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score should rise above 4.0 as margin or moat indicators improve, or FCF yield should remain elevated. | →Stable |
| CounterA high FCF yield in a low-growth personal-care business can also signal a value trap if declining volumes erode the cash-generating base over time. | ||
Edgewell has already reached its analyst price target, leaving -21.7% modeled upside against 15% downside for a negative risk/reward ratio of -1.44. Bear case | Modeled upside should turn positive as the price target is raised or the stock pulls back. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer defensive names with strong free cash flow yields can keep re-rating higher even after nominally reaching a stale price target. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74 while trading above its 200-day moving average, though the moving average slope is flat rather than rising. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool toward the 40-60 neutral range without a sharp price decline. | →Stable |
| CounterA flat moving-average slope combined with an overbought RSI can precede an extended sideways consolidation rather than a reversal. | ||
Short interest stands at 13% of the float, consistent with the engine's flagged concern about below-average business quality. Key risks | Short interest should decline as quality metrics improve or the bear thesis is otherwise disproven. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in a stable consumer-defensive name with strong free cash flow can set up a short squeeze on any positive catalyst. | ||
Edgewell generates an 18.8% free cash flow yield with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, even though the quality score of 3.9 sits just below the engine's 4.0 floor due to a lack of competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 4.0 as margin or moat indicators improve, or FCF yield should remain elevated.
CounterA high FCF yield in a low-growth personal-care business can also signal a value trap if declining volumes erode the cash-generating base over time.
Edgewell has already reached its analyst price target, leaving -21.7% modeled upside against 15% downside for a negative risk/reward ratio of -1.44.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Modeled upside should turn positive as the price target is raised or the stock pulls back.
CounterConsumer defensive names with strong free cash flow yields can keep re-rating higher even after nominally reaching a stale price target.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74 while trading above its 200-day moving average, though the moving average slope is flat rather than rising.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool toward the 40-60 neutral range without a sharp price decline.
CounterA flat moving-average slope combined with an overbought RSI can precede an extended sideways consolidation rather than a reversal.
Short interest stands at 13% of the float, consistent with the engine's flagged concern about below-average business quality.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline as quality metrics improve or the bear thesis is otherwise disproven.
CounterHigh short interest in a stable consumer-defensive name with strong free cash flow can set up a short squeeze on any positive catalyst.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Edgewell Personal Care generates a strong free cash flow yield but has already reached its analyst target, leaving a negative risk/reward setup alongside overbought technicals and elevated short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 11%, FCF yield 19.1%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 4.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.56 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 3.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.64
- ▸High IV: 96%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.20
Upside
-18.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 7.7 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, and Momentum at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside_pct stays below -15% for 2 more consecutive engine runs.
- P2High Fcf Yield Despite Quality Gap
Trip ifFCF yield falls below 10% at the next quarterly update.
- P3Overbought Momentum
Trip ifRSI stays above 70 for 2 more consecutive weeks.
- P4High Short Interest Amid Quality Gap
Trip ifShort interest stays above 12% for 2 more consecutive updates.