Value
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
EOLS · Why this verdict
Why Evolus, Inc. Common Stock (EOLS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Evolus is growing revenue 21% YoY with an 86.2% gap to the analyst target and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record, but it is cash-burning, relies on two single-source suppliers, and has insiders selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Evolus is cash-burning with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and an operating margin of -49.5%, with value-trap signals flagged (2 of 5). Warnings | Operating margin improves from -49.5% and free cash flow turns positive within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGross margin scores 9.3/10, so scale could fix operating losses, but losses have run for years and the earnings record includes 8 misses in the last 12 reports. | ||
Evolus is growing revenue 21% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $84.1M in the latest quarter versus $69.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over 12 months, with quarterly revenue near the $77.6M next-quarter estimate or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy (from $90.3M to $73.1M the following quarter), and a Rule of 40 reading of 21 fails, showing growth is not translating into profitability. | ||
The business depends on two single-source manufacturers, Daewoong (Jeuveau) and Symatese (Evolysse), both flagged as high concentration risks. Bear case | Supply from both manufacturers continues without interruption through the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAny production, regulatory or contract problem at either supplier would stop sales of a core product, and there is no stated alternative source. | ||
The $13.05 analyst target is 86.2% above the $7.01 price, with the next earnings report in 11 days on 2026-11-04. Analyst target | Price moves toward the $13.05 target as EPS losses narrow and the beat record holds at the 2026-11-04 report. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a 64.8% miss in March shows the beat record is fragile. | ||
Insiders sold $950,019 in the last 90 days (0.205% of market cap) with no buys, while the put/call ratio is 6.00 and implied volatility is 85%. Insider | Insider selling stops and the put/call ratio eases from 6.00 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and one sale may be routine, but heavy put positioning suggests investors are hedging or betting against the stock. | ||
Evolus is cash-burning with free cash flow at -1% of revenue and an operating margin of -49.5%, with value-trap signals flagged (2 of 5).
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Operating margin improves from -49.5% and free cash flow turns positive within 12 months.
CounterGross margin scores 9.3/10, so scale could fix operating losses, but losses have run for years and the earnings record includes 8 misses in the last 12 reports.
Evolus is growing revenue 21% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $84.1M in the latest quarter versus $69.4M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% YoY over 12 months, with quarterly revenue near the $77.6M next-quarter estimate or higher.
CounterQuarterly revenue is lumpy (from $90.3M to $73.1M the following quarter), and a Rule of 40 reading of 21 fails, showing growth is not translating into profitability.
The business depends on two single-source manufacturers, Daewoong (Jeuveau) and Symatese (Evolysse), both flagged as high concentration risks.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply from both manufacturers continues without interruption through the next 12 months.
CounterAny production, regulatory or contract problem at either supplier would stop sales of a core product, and there is no stated alternative source.
The $13.05 analyst target is 86.2% above the $7.01 price, with the next earnings report in 11 days on 2026-11-04.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $13.05 target as EPS losses narrow and the beat record holds at the 2026-11-04 report.
CounterCoverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a 64.8% miss in March shows the beat record is fragile.
Insiders sold $950,019 in the last 90 days (0.205% of market cap) with no buys, while the put/call ratio is 6.00 and implied volatility is 85%.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops and the put/call ratio eases from 6.00 over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating, and one sale may be routine, but heavy put positioning suggests investors are hedging or betting against the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 21 (fail)
Growth
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 96%
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $950,019 (0.188% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 2.6 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 1.7 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.00
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:7.4>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.19%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
7.37
Upside
+70.9%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Growth at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 7.37.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.9, Value at 8.4, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Quality at 3.6, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from current 21%.
- P2Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifEither supplier accounts for more than 50% of supply with no second source after 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cash Burn Margin Compression
Trip ifOperating margin stays below -40% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Upside Catalyst
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $9 from current $13.05.
- P5Insider Selling Bearish Options
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over 90 days from current 0.205%.