Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
EME · Why this verdict
Why EMCOR Group (EME) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 39%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 67% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 8.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 30) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $10,392,691 (0.029% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.60
- ▸Above max pain $460
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 16.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.86
Upside
+5.6%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.86 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Growth at 7.7, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Peer rank at 4.5, and Momentum at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.