Value
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
ELMT · Why this verdict
Why The Elmet Group (ELMT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Elmet is growing fast (35% YoY, with quarterly revenue up from $46.4M to $66.4M in five quarters) and has beaten the last 2 earnings reports, but only 7.5% upside remains to the analyst target, 26% of shares are sold short, and quality is just under the 4.0 floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 3.9, just under the 4.0 floor, with operating and net margins scoring 0.0, though the moat scores 6.5. Bear case | Operating margin turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith margins scoring zero and a 37.7x forward P/E, any growth slowdown would hit both earnings and valuation at once. | ||
Elmet is growing 35% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $46.4M in March 2025 to $66.4M in the July 2026 quarter. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue holds near or above the $64.6M next-quarter estimate and YoY growth stays above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth from a small base in Aerospace & Defense can come from one-time contracts, and the latest jump (56.0M to 66.4M in one quarter) may not repeat. | ||
Elmet beat EPS estimates in both reported quarters, with actuals of $0.23 and $0.18 against estimates of -$0.01 and $0.06, and reports next on 2026-11-16. Last 4 quarters | EPS stays positive and at or above estimates at the 2026-11-16 report. | →Stable |
| CounterOnly two quarters of history are available, so the 2,400% and 217% surprises come off tiny estimates and say little about durability. | ||
The $23.38 analyst target is only 7.5% above the $21.74 price against a 15% modeled downside, so reward-to-risk is just 0.5. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised toward $27 or higher as earnings grow, restoring a wider upside gap. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light, so the target can move sharply either way, and the 7.5% gap leaves no room if growth slows. | ||
Short interest is 26% of float, a high reading that signals significant skepticism despite institutions accumulating. Key risks | Short interest falls below 20% as earnings beats continue over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest can also fuel a squeeze, but sustained 26% shorting typically reflects informed concern about valuation (37.7x forward P/E) or quality. | ||
Quality is 3.9, just under the 4.0 floor, with operating and net margins scoring 0.0, though the moat scores 6.5.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Operating margin turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterWith margins scoring zero and a 37.7x forward P/E, any growth slowdown would hit both earnings and valuation at once.
Elmet is growing 35% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $46.4M in March 2025 to $66.4M in the July 2026 quarter.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds near or above the $64.6M next-quarter estimate and YoY growth stays above 15%.
CounterGrowth from a small base in Aerospace & Defense can come from one-time contracts, and the latest jump (56.0M to 66.4M in one quarter) may not repeat.
Elmet beat EPS estimates in both reported quarters, with actuals of $0.23 and $0.18 against estimates of -$0.01 and $0.06, and reports next on 2026-11-16.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS stays positive and at or above estimates at the 2026-11-16 report.
CounterOnly two quarters of history are available, so the 2,400% and 217% surprises come off tiny estimates and say little about durability.
The $23.38 analyst target is only 7.5% above the $21.74 price against a 15% modeled downside, so reward-to-risk is just 0.5.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward $27 or higher as earnings grow, restoring a wider upside gap.
CounterCoverage is light, so the target can move sharply either way, and the 7.5% gap leaves no room if growth slows.
Short interest is 26% of float, a high reading that signals significant skepticism despite institutions accumulating.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 20% as earnings beats continue over 12 months.
CounterHigh short interest can also fuel a squeeze, but sustained 26% shorting typically reflects informed concern about valuation (37.7x forward P/E) or quality.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 28%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.07
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.07.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Quality at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from current 35%.
- P2Earnings Beats Turning Profitable
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $21.74, the current price, from $23.38.
- P4High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 35% from current 26%.
- P5Thin Margins Weak Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from current 3.9.