Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
- ▸Attractively valued
E · Why this verdict
Why ENI S.p.A. (E) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ENI shows strong 27% YoY revenue growth and an attractive 9.5x forward P/E, but the price is already above the analyst target (negative 22.6% upside), the stock is overbought at an RSI of 88, and the earnings jump looks tied to a commodity-price surge.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The forward-to-trailing earnings ratio of 0.44x with a 9.5x forward P/E points to a commodity-cycle peak, where earnings may fall back as prices normalize. Bear case | Forward EPS estimates are not cut by more than 20% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf energy prices stay elevated, the peak call fails and earnings keep compounding; the bear case here is a timing bet against the commodity. | ||
ENI is growing revenue 27% YoY, which supports a strong growth profile for an integrated oil and gas company. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 10% YoY over the next 12 months, and next-quarter revenue approaches the $26.5B estimate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth in an integrated energy company tracks commodity prices; if oil and gas prices roll over, the 27% growth could reverse quickly. | ||
ENI trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG of 0.44, which reads as attractively valued on earnings. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings hold, keeping the valuation cheap versus the sector. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe low forward multiple may be a commodity-cycle peak illusion: EPS just expanded off a price surge and the forward estimate may be built on stale spot prices, so mean reversion is unpriced. | ||
At $62.08 the price is 22.6% above the $48.08 analyst target and 0.1% from its 52-week high, so the stock offers limited upside versus analyst expectations. Analyst target | Either the analyst target is raised toward the $62 price or the price drifts back toward the $48 target. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag in strong rallies; the stock has strong momentum (8.1/10, rising volume) and could keep rising past the target. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 88, and the earnings record is mixed with 2 beats and 2 misses and an average surprise of -0.7%. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 without price falling more than 10%, and the next report on 2027-02-25 beats estimates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought readings can persist in a strong trend, and the earnings history in the data is dated (latest listed 2024-02-16), so it may understate current execution. | ||
The forward-to-trailing earnings ratio of 0.44x with a 9.5x forward P/E points to a commodity-cycle peak, where earnings may fall back as prices normalize.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward EPS estimates are not cut by more than 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterIf energy prices stay elevated, the peak call fails and earnings keep compounding; the bear case here is a timing bet against the commodity.
ENI is growing revenue 27% YoY, which supports a strong growth profile for an integrated oil and gas company.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 10% YoY over the next 12 months, and next-quarter revenue approaches the $26.5B estimate.
CounterGrowth in an integrated energy company tracks commodity prices; if oil and gas prices roll over, the 27% growth could reverse quickly.
ENI trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG of 0.44, which reads as attractively valued on earnings.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings hold, keeping the valuation cheap versus the sector.
CounterThe low forward multiple may be a commodity-cycle peak illusion: EPS just expanded off a price surge and the forward estimate may be built on stale spot prices, so mean reversion is unpriced.
At $62.08 the price is 22.6% above the $48.08 analyst target and 0.1% from its 52-week high, so the stock offers limited upside versus analyst expectations.
↑ImprovingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Either the analyst target is raised toward the $62 price or the price drifts back toward the $48 target.
CounterAnalyst targets lag in strong rallies; the stock has strong momentum (8.1/10, rising volume) and could keep rising past the target.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 88, and the earnings record is mixed with 2 beats and 2 misses and an average surprise of -0.7%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 without price falling more than 10%, and the next report on 2027-02-25 beats estimates.
CounterOverbought readings can persist in a strong trend, and the earnings history in the data is dated (latest listed 2024-02-16), so it may understate current execution.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 76% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.2 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 9.9 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:119d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=9.0x,ratio=0.51x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.78
Upside
-17.9%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Peer rank at 3.1. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 7.7, and Momentum at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.1, Quality at 4.3, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY from current 27%.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from current 9.5x.
- P3Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifForward EPS estimates fall more than 20% from current levels.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 13.6% from $62.08, hitting the downside level near $53.6.
- P5Overbought With Mixed Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.