Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 8.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.83
- ▸Attractively valued
DOX · Why this verdict
Why Amdocs (DOX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Amdocs combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with a forward earnings multiple of 6.9x — making it attractively valued — yet the stock has broken down technically with a confirmed death cross, price below all moving averages, and a put/call ratio of 2.00, suggesting the value case remains unrecognized until price momentum reverses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — consistently under-promising and over-delivering, with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.2% — demonstrating reliable execution discipline even as headline growth has slowed. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, confirming that execution discipline is structural rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average beat magnitude of approximately 1.2% is narrow — near the threshold of rounding — suggesting that estimates are being carefully managed; if estimates trend down sufficiently, even a small miss would break the streak and could pressure the stock significantly. | ||
At a forward earnings multiple of 6.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock screens attractively valued versus the peer group even as the price has declined sharply — offering a potentially wide margin of safety for a patient buyer if the business continues to execute. Valuation breakdown | The stock re-rates toward a forward multiple above 10x as investor confidence in the beat streak and balance sheet quality is restored over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak growth — flagged explicitly in the bear case — means a low multiple may be structurally deserved rather than a temporary discount; if earnings estimates continue trending down, the 6.9x forward multiple may simply normalize at a lower earnings base rather than expand. | ||
A confirmed death cross, price below all major moving averages with the long-term trend slope declining at approximately 4.7% per month, and an RSI of 29 collectively signal a confirmed downtrend with capitulation-level technical readings that block new position entry. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 6 months, confirming the technical bottom is in. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 29 approaching capitulation territory can signal a near-term bounce opportunity rather than continued deterioration; if the earnings beat streak attracts buyers at these depressed levels, the death cross could resolve faster than expected and the technical setup would flip constructive. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.00 paired with implied volatility of 68% indicates elevated hedging demand and institutional caution, signaling that the market is pricing meaningful downside risk beyond what the current share price reflects. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 within three months as directional bearishness unwinds following a stabilization in price trend. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios at capitulation-level RSI readings have historically preceded mean-reversions; if hedges are unwound following any positive catalyst, implied volatility compression could itself provide a tailwind for the stock. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters — consistently under-promising and over-delivering, with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.2% — demonstrating reliable execution discipline even as headline growth has slowed.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters, confirming that execution discipline is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterThe average beat magnitude of approximately 1.2% is narrow — near the threshold of rounding — suggesting that estimates are being carefully managed; if estimates trend down sufficiently, even a small miss would break the streak and could pressure the stock significantly.
At a forward earnings multiple of 6.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.75, the stock screens attractively valued versus the peer group even as the price has declined sharply — offering a potentially wide margin of safety for a patient buyer if the business continues to execute.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock re-rates toward a forward multiple above 10x as investor confidence in the beat streak and balance sheet quality is restored over the next 12 months.
CounterWeak growth — flagged explicitly in the bear case — means a low multiple may be structurally deserved rather than a temporary discount; if earnings estimates continue trending down, the 6.9x forward multiple may simply normalize at a lower earnings base rather than expand.
A confirmed death cross, price below all major moving averages with the long-term trend slope declining at approximately 4.7% per month, and an RSI of 29 collectively signal a confirmed downtrend with capitulation-level technical readings that block new position entry.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and the death cross resolves within 6 months, confirming the technical bottom is in.
CounterAn RSI of 29 approaching capitulation territory can signal a near-term bounce opportunity rather than continued deterioration; if the earnings beat streak attracts buyers at these depressed levels, the death cross could resolve faster than expected and the technical setup would flip constructive.
A put/call ratio of 2.00 paired with implied volatility of 68% indicates elevated hedging demand and institutional caution, signaling that the market is pricing meaningful downside risk beyond what the current share price reflects.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 within three months as directional bearishness unwinds following a stabilization in price trend.
CounterElevated put/call ratios at capitulation-level RSI readings have historically preceded mean-reversions; if hedges are unwound following any positive catalyst, implied volatility compression could itself provide a tailwind for the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 5.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 152% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 1.4 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 42.67
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.6>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.05
Upside
+8.3%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.05 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Sentiment at 6.1, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Value Amid Selloff
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 12x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Technical Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Options Skew Warning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 3 consecutive weeks.