Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.68
DOV · Why this verdict
Why Dover (DOV) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Dover Corporation has formed a golden cross with price above all moving averages and a perfect financial health score, but an in-line quarter in the most recent period following three beats, volume distribution pressure, and only 2.3% upside to the analyst target with a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.46-to-1 make the near-term entry unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden cross has formed with price above all major moving averages, RSI near 58, and MACD turning bullish — a technical configuration that has historically preceded extended advancing phases and suggests the near-term trend favors the upside. V9 | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and MACD stays in a bullish cross for at least 3 consecutive months, confirming the breakout is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling (distribution pattern), suggesting shares are being redistributed despite the favorable moving average configuration — selling pressure beneath the surface may limit how far the breakout extends. | ||
The most recent quarter came in essentially at consensus, preceded by three consecutive beats in the prior three periods — a pattern of disciplined delivery that, across four quarters, averages a modest but positive 2% surprise and demonstrates an absence of earnings shocks. Earnings | Earnings per share beats or matches consensus in all 4 of the next quarterly reports without a negative surprise. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average positive surprise of approximately 2% is narrow, and the most recent in-line result could mark the beginning of a moderation toward below-consensus delivery if cost pressures or revenue timing shifts the balance. | ||
A perfect score across all nine Piotroski F-Score criteria indicates the business passes every standard test of profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency — a rare combination that signals high-quality fundamentals and reduces the risk of a balance-sheet-driven negative surprise. Quality | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above across each of the next four quarterly assessments, sustaining the exceptional fundamental health profile. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow of approximately 76% relative to net income carries a mild quality warning, suggesting that despite the strong overall score, not all reported earnings are fully converting into cash at the rate the headline metrics imply. | ||
With approximately 2.3% upside to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.46-to-1, the current setup does not offer sufficient asymmetry to justify initiating new positions, even against a high-quality business with a favorable technical backdrop. Warnings | Analyst consensus target is revised upward sufficiently to restore upside above 10% from current price, creating a more attractive risk-adjusted entry opportunity. | →Stable |
| CounterThe golden cross technical configuration and perfect financial health can attract buyers that compress the spread between current price and target quickly, particularly if the next quarterly report continues the recent beat streak. | ||
A golden cross has formed with price above all major moving averages, RSI near 58, and MACD turning bullish — a technical configuration that has historically preceded extended advancing phases and suggests the near-term trend favors the upside.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and MACD stays in a bullish cross for at least 3 consecutive months, confirming the breakout is sustained.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling (distribution pattern), suggesting shares are being redistributed despite the favorable moving average configuration — selling pressure beneath the surface may limit how far the breakout extends.
The most recent quarter came in essentially at consensus, preceded by three consecutive beats in the prior three periods — a pattern of disciplined delivery that, across four quarters, averages a modest but positive 2% surprise and demonstrates an absence of earnings shocks.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats or matches consensus in all 4 of the next quarterly reports without a negative surprise.
CounterThe average positive surprise of approximately 2% is narrow, and the most recent in-line result could mark the beginning of a moderation toward below-consensus delivery if cost pressures or revenue timing shifts the balance.
A perfect score across all nine Piotroski F-Score criteria indicates the business passes every standard test of profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency — a rare combination that signals high-quality fundamentals and reduces the risk of a balance-sheet-driven negative surprise.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above across each of the next four quarterly assessments, sustaining the exceptional fundamental health profile.
CounterFree cash flow of approximately 76% relative to net income carries a mild quality warning, suggesting that despite the strong overall score, not all reported earnings are fully converting into cash at the rate the headline metrics imply.
With approximately 2.3% upside to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.46-to-1, the current setup does not offer sufficient asymmetry to justify initiating new positions, even against a high-quality business with a favorable technical backdrop.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target is revised upward sufficiently to restore upside above 10% from current price, creating a more attractive risk-adjusted entry opportunity.
CounterThe golden cross technical configuration and perfect financial health can attract buyers that compress the spread between current price and target quickly, particularly if the next quarterly report continues the recent beat streak.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 7.5 |
| Net margin | 6.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 80% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 9.9 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.43 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
1.37
Upside
+9.0%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.4; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Growth at 4.5, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Breakout Golden Cross
Trip ifPrice falls more than 7% from current levels and MACD crosses below its signal line, reversing the golden cross breakout signal.
- P2Earnings Delivery Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Perfect Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls to 6 or below in any reported quarter, indicating material deterioration in the fundamental health profile.
- P4Thin Asymmetry Limits Entry
Trip ifPrice breaks above $225.76 (the analyst target) and continues to advance for 2 consecutive months, demonstrating the entry near target offered material return beyond the thin stated headroom.