Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.46
DKL · Why this verdict
Why Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Delek Logistics has surging revenue and insider buying, but it trades well above the analyst target with a negative cash-flow red flag and inconsistent earnings, which leaves limited upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $57.32 the stock is above the $46.40 analyst target (target-implied upside of -19.1%), with 7.3% downside to the stop. Estimated upside | Analysts raise targets above the share price within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross with the price above all averages and momentum of 6.9/10 suggests the market is pricing in growth that analysts have not yet modeled. | ||
Growth is strong at 56% YoY, and quarterly revenue reached $384.8M in June 2026 versus $246.4M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter estimate of $355.4M is below the latest quarter, so the surge may reflect a one-time step-up. | ||
Free cash flow is -70% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality red flag, and a yield-trap warning notes a high yield that is unsafe. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion turns positive so distributions are covered by cash flow. | →Stable |
| CounterLogistics partnerships often carry heavy growth capex, which can depress free cash flow temporarily while earnings grow. | ||
EPS beat in 2 and missed in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a -41.83% miss in August 2026 and a 47.05% beat in February 2026. Last 4 quarters | Earnings surprises turn consistently positive across the next four reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe average surprise is roughly -0.25% and the next report is 13 days away, so results are essentially in line over a year. | ||
Insiders bought $750,000 of stock, with institutions accumulating, a modest but positive ownership signal. Insider breakdown | Insiders remain net buyers over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is only 0.023% of market cap, too small to be a strong conviction signal. | ||
At $57.32 the stock is above the $46.40 analyst target (target-implied upside of -19.1%), with 7.3% downside to the stop.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the share price within 12 months.
CounterA golden cross with the price above all averages and momentum of 6.9/10 suggests the market is pricing in growth that analysts have not yet modeled.
Growth is strong at 56% YoY, and quarterly revenue reached $384.8M in June 2026 versus $246.4M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 20% over the next four quarters.
CounterThe next-quarter estimate of $355.4M is below the latest quarter, so the surge may reflect a one-time step-up.
Free cash flow is -70% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality red flag, and a yield-trap warning notes a high yield that is unsafe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion turns positive so distributions are covered by cash flow.
CounterLogistics partnerships often carry heavy growth capex, which can depress free cash flow temporarily while earnings grow.
EPS beat in 2 and missed in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with a -41.83% miss in August 2026 and a 47.05% beat in February 2026.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises turn consistently positive across the next four reports.
CounterThe average surprise is roughly -0.25% and the next report is 13 days away, so results are essentially in line over a year.
Insiders bought $750,000 of stock, with institutions accumulating, a modest but positive ownership signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insiders remain net buyers over the next two quarters.
CounterThe purchase is only 0.023% of market cap, too small to be a strong conviction signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -70% FCF/NI
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 56% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.37 (n=3)
Insider
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $750,000 (0.023% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.4 |
| quality rank | 9.3 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.12
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.4 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-3.72
Upside
-18.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Momentum at 3.9. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Insider at 7.9, and Value at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Catalyst at 4.1, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $65 from the current $46.40.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth falls below 20% from the current 56%.
- P3Negative Cash Flow Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 80% from the current -70%.
- P4Inconsistent Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P5Insider Buying Support
Trip ifInsiders sell more than $500,000 in net value over a 90-day period.