Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.4 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.72
DD · Why this verdict
Why DuPont de Nemours (DD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
DuPont has maintained a four-quarter earnings beat streak with average surprises near 9%, but a quality score just below the investable floor, negative free cash flow, and a risk/reward ratio of 0.78 that fails to clear the minimum threshold combine to keep the setup outside investable criteria.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The risk/reward ratio of 0.78 falls well below the 1.5 minimum bar for positive asymmetry, meaning potential upside does not meaningfully compensate for downside at current prices. Engine gate (failed) | The setup becomes constructive if the risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5 through either a meaningful analyst price target revision upward or a pullback that widens the upside cushion. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the earnings beat streak continues and analyst targets are revised higher, the asymmetry ratio could improve organically over time without a price pullback, making the current reading a lagging indicator of fundamental progress. | ||
The business quality score sits at 3.9, marginally below the minimum investable threshold of 4.0, driven in part by negative free cash flow and relatively weak return on assets and equity. Warnings | Quality would need to rise above 4.0 on two consecutive assessments — supported by improving free cash flow and return on capital metrics — before the floor disqualifier is removed. | →Stable |
| CounterAt 3.9 against a 4.0 threshold, the quality deficit is marginal; a single quarter of improved cash conversion or margin expansion could push the score across the line, making the current disqualification potentially short-lived. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at approximately -2% of revenue, meaning the business is currently consuming cash rather than generating it — a concern that reduces the credibility of reported earnings as a measure of economic value. Quality | The concern resolves if free cash flow turns positive and sustains above 0% of revenue for two consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA mild cash-consumption rate of around -2% of revenue may reflect a near-term working capital build or investment cycle that normalizes; if operating cash flow recovers with revenue, the drag may prove temporary. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 9%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering. Catalyst | Continued EPS beats over the next two quarters, with positive surprises above 5%, would reinforce that the beat pattern is structural and not a one-cycle recovery artifact. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe beat streak coincides with a period of negative free cash flow; if earnings beats are not accompanied by genuine cash generation, reported EPS may overstate sustainable profitability and the streak would offer false comfort. | ||
The risk/reward ratio of 0.78 falls well below the 1.5 minimum bar for positive asymmetry, meaning potential upside does not meaningfully compensate for downside at current prices.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The setup becomes constructive if the risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5 through either a meaningful analyst price target revision upward or a pullback that widens the upside cushion.
CounterIf the earnings beat streak continues and analyst targets are revised higher, the asymmetry ratio could improve organically over time without a price pullback, making the current reading a lagging indicator of fundamental progress.
The business quality score sits at 3.9, marginally below the minimum investable threshold of 4.0, driven in part by negative free cash flow and relatively weak return on assets and equity.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality would need to rise above 4.0 on two consecutive assessments — supported by improving free cash flow and return on capital metrics — before the floor disqualifier is removed.
CounterAt 3.9 against a 4.0 threshold, the quality deficit is marginal; a single quarter of improved cash conversion or margin expansion could push the score across the line, making the current disqualification potentially short-lived.
Free cash flow is negative at approximately -2% of revenue, meaning the business is currently consuming cash rather than generating it — a concern that reduces the credibility of reported earnings as a measure of economic value.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- The concern resolves if free cash flow turns positive and sustains above 0% of revenue for two consecutive quarters.
CounterA mild cash-consumption rate of around -2% of revenue may reflect a near-term working capital build or investment cycle that normalizes; if operating cash flow recovers with revenue, the drag may prove temporary.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 9%, demonstrating a consistent pattern of under-promising and over-delivering.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats over the next two quarters, with positive surprises above 5%, would reinforce that the beat pattern is structural and not a one-cycle recovery artifact.
CounterThe beat streak coincides with a period of negative free cash flow; if earnings beats are not accompanied by genuine cash generation, reported EPS may overstate sustainable profitability and the streak would offer false comfort.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $75
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.92
Upside
+7.4%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Momentum at 7.0, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Peer rank at 4.2, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Just Below Investable Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarterly assessments, lifting the floor disqualification.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive (above 0% of revenue) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.
- P4Thin Risk Reward Ratio
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio rises above 1.5 following an analyst target revision or price correction.