Value
8.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
DCTH · Why this verdict
Why Delcath Systems (DCTH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine flagged a BREAKOUT setup with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI at 69, and bullish MACD, driving a momentum score of 6.7. Chart pattern detection | Price should sustain above its moving averages and momentum score should hold at or above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the breakout continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case notes the stock is already near its 52-week high (1.8% away), so much of the breakout move may already be priced in, leaving limited room before resistance. | ||
The bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak of 3 out of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 68.09%, 122.22%, and 169.23%, averaging 75.82%. Bull case | Earnings beat rate should stay at 3-of-4 or better with average surprise remaining strongly positive over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss in the streak (-56.25% surprise) shows the beats aren't uniform, and percentage surprises on very small absolute EPS estimates can be volatile and less predictive of the next quarter's outcome. | ||
The quality assessment notes excellent cash conversion at 1000% FCF/NI and a Rule of 40 score of 48 (passing), alongside strong 26% YoY revenue growth. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion should remain strong above 100% and Rule of 40 should continue to pass over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme 1000% FCF/NI ratio typically results from a very small or near-zero net income base rather than sustainably outsized cash generation, and the underlying quality score of 4.7 remains below-average per the key_risks flag. | ||
Key risks flag high short interest of 10%, and options data shows elevated implied volatility of 73% with a scaled put/call risk component of 10.0. Key risks | Short interest should decline from the current 10% level and implied volatility should compress over the next 12 months if bearish positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in a stock with strong recent earnings beats and a breakout setup can also fuel a short-squeeze dynamic that accelerates upside rather than signaling fundamental weakness. | ||
Sentiment notes flag light analyst coverage, dampening the signal, alongside a 62% analyst-implied upside to the price target of $18.58 from the current $13.20. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst coverage should broaden and price target upside should narrow toward 0% via price appreciation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only light coverage, the analyst target carries less statistical weight, and the 40.8% upside embedded in the targets table could be revised down as more analysts initiate coverage with more conservative views. | ||
The engine flagged a BREAKOUT setup with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI at 69, and bullish MACD, driving a momentum score of 6.7.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should sustain above its moving averages and momentum score should hold at or above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the breakout continues.
CounterThe bear case notes the stock is already near its 52-week high (1.8% away), so much of the breakout move may already be priced in, leaving limited room before resistance.
The bull case cites a strong earnings beat streak of 3 out of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 68.09%, 122.22%, and 169.23%, averaging 75.82%.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate should stay at 3-of-4 or better with average surprise remaining strongly positive over the next four quarters.
CounterThe one miss in the streak (-56.25% surprise) shows the beats aren't uniform, and percentage surprises on very small absolute EPS estimates can be volatile and less predictive of the next quarter's outcome.
The quality assessment notes excellent cash conversion at 1000% FCF/NI and a Rule of 40 score of 48 (passing), alongside strong 26% YoY revenue growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion should remain strong above 100% and Rule of 40 should continue to pass over the next 12 months.
CounterAn extreme 1000% FCF/NI ratio typically results from a very small or near-zero net income base rather than sustainably outsized cash generation, and the underlying quality score of 4.7 remains below-average per the key_risks flag.
Key risks flag high short interest of 10%, and options data shows elevated implied volatility of 73% with a scaled put/call risk component of 10.0.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline from the current 10% level and implied volatility should compress over the next 12 months if bearish positioning unwinds.
CounterHigh short interest in a stock with strong recent earnings beats and a breakout setup can also fuel a short-squeeze dynamic that accelerates upside rather than signaling fundamental weakness.
Sentiment notes flag light analyst coverage, dampening the signal, alongside a 62% analyst-implied upside to the price target of $18.58 from the current $13.20.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst coverage should broaden and price target upside should narrow toward 0% via price appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterWith only light coverage, the analyst target carries less statistical weight, and the 40.8% upside embedded in the targets table could be revised down as more analysts initiate coverage with more conservative views.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Delcath Systems shows a confirmed technical breakout backed by a strong earnings-beat streak and excellent cash conversion, but light analyst coverage, high short interest, and proximity to its 52-week high leave the setup mixed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 48 (pass)
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.52
Upside
+37.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.1; weakest: Technical at 2.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Value at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Quality at 4.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Breakout Momentum Golden Cross
Trip ifPrice closes below its 200-day moving average or momentum score falls below 4.5 (from the current 6.7), invalidating the breakout.
- P2Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls to 1 of 4 quarters or fewer, or average surprise falls below 0% (from 75.82%).
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion falls below 100% (from 1000%) or the Rule of 40 score fails, falling below 40.
- P4High Short Interest Elevated Iv Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% (from the current 10%) or implied volatility rises above 100% (from 73%).
- P5Light Analyst Coverage Upside Gap
Trip ifAnalyst-implied upside compresses below 20% (from 62%), or the price target is cut below $16.