Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.65
CSCO · Why this verdict
Why Cisco Systems (CSCO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business operates with strong margins around 20%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting durable competitive advantages and high-quality financials. Quality | Operating margins remain at or above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow conversion is flagged at 78% of net income — a caution that earnings may be running ahead of cash generation, and conversion could deteriorate further if working capital requirements shift. | ||
A high-severity supplier concentration risk is flagged in annual filings, exposing the company to supply disruption if a single-source or limited-source supplier cannot deliver. Risk | Annual filings downgrade the concentration risk from high to moderate or low, and management commentary confirms meaningful supply chain diversification progress. | →Stable |
| CounterSupply chain concentration is common across the industry and does not impair day-to-day operations; existing inventory buffers may already mitigate the risk beyond what the filing disclosure alone conveys. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, averaging a 1.79% positive surprise, suggesting disciplined guidance and reliable near-term execution. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive for each of the next four quarters, sustaining an average beat above 1%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average beat margin of 1.79% is narrow; any guidance reset or demand softness could flip the streak to a miss, eroding the consistency premium the market has priced in. | ||
Price momentum is soft, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution despite the stock holding above its 200-day moving average; the momentum reading sits well below the level needed to support a constructive setup. Momentum | RSI rises above 65 and on-balance volume shifts to a rising trend for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming that demand has returned. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is above its 200-day moving average and mid-range on RSI at 52, so the momentum weakness could reverse quickly on any positive catalyst without requiring a deeper price correction first. | ||
The stock has reached analyst targets and now trades with only about 6% headroom to the take-profit level, while the risk/reward sits at 0.9-to-1 in an unfavorable configuration — downside risk exceeds available upside at current prices. Price targets | Available upside to analyst consensus targets exceeds 20% for 2 consecutive months, whether through a price pullback or a meaningful target revision. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets are periodically revised upward as earnings grow; continued beats could prompt target increases that restore double-digit upside without requiring a price decline. | ||
The business operates with strong margins around 20%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting durable competitive advantages and high-quality financials.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain at or above 20% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or above over the next four reported quarters.
CounterFree cash flow conversion is flagged at 78% of net income — a caution that earnings may be running ahead of cash generation, and conversion could deteriorate further if working capital requirements shift.
A high-severity supplier concentration risk is flagged in annual filings, exposing the company to supply disruption if a single-source or limited-source supplier cannot deliver.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- Annual filings downgrade the concentration risk from high to moderate or low, and management commentary confirms meaningful supply chain diversification progress.
CounterSupply chain concentration is common across the industry and does not impair day-to-day operations; existing inventory buffers may already mitigate the risk beyond what the filing disclosure alone conveys.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, averaging a 1.79% positive surprise, suggesting disciplined guidance and reliable near-term execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for each of the next four quarters, sustaining an average beat above 1%.
CounterThe average beat margin of 1.79% is narrow; any guidance reset or demand softness could flip the streak to a miss, eroding the consistency premium the market has priced in.
Price momentum is soft, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution despite the stock holding above its 200-day moving average; the momentum reading sits well below the level needed to support a constructive setup.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- RSI rises above 65 and on-balance volume shifts to a rising trend for 4 consecutive weeks, confirming that demand has returned.
CounterThe stock is above its 200-day moving average and mid-range on RSI at 52, so the momentum weakness could reverse quickly on any positive catalyst without requiring a deeper price correction first.
The stock has reached analyst targets and now trades with only about 6% headroom to the take-profit level, while the risk/reward sits at 0.9-to-1 in an unfavorable configuration — downside risk exceeds available upside at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Available upside to analyst consensus targets exceeds 20% for 2 consecutive months, whether through a price pullback or a meaningful target revision.
CounterAnalyst targets are periodically revised upward as earnings grow; continued beats could prompt target increases that restore double-digit upside without requiring a price decline.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cisco is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat and a consistent record of above-consensus earnings, but the stock has reached analyst targets and now offers only about 6% headroom to the take-profit level with an unfavorable risk/reward of 0.9-to-1; weakening price momentum with volume distribution argues for patience rather than adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.4 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 8.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 78% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 9.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $6,347,960 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 3.5 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
| news risk | 2.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $50
- ▸Multi-category risk: demand, regulatory
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.09
Upside
+0.6%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Technical at 8.2; weakest: Peer rank at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Quality at 7.6, and Growth at 7.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Value at 4.0, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four reported quarters, averaging a 1.79% positive surprise, suggesting disciplined guidance and reliable near-term execution.
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2The business operates with strong margins around 20%, a wide economic moat, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting durable competitive advantages and high-quality financials.
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price momentum is soft, with falling on-balance volume signaling distribution despite the stock holding above its 200-day moving average; the momentum reading sits well below the level needed to support a constructive setup.
Trip ifRSI rises above 65 and on-balance volume shifts to a rising trend for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4The stock has reached analyst targets and now trades with only about 6% headroom to the take-profit level, while the risk/reward sits at 0.9-to-1 in an unfavorable configuration — downside risk exceeds available upside at current prices.
Trip ifAvailable upside to analyst consensus price target exceeds 20% for 2 consecutive months.
- P5A high-severity supplier concentration risk is flagged in annual filings, exposing the company to supply disruption if a single-source or limited-source supplier cannot deliver.
Trip ifNumber of HIGH-severity concentration risks in the annual filing falls to 0 for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.