Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸Attractively valued
CRK · Why this verdict
Why Comstock Resources (CRK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.1 |
| ROA | 2.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -126% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 1.9 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 5.1 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 27% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.91
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.91
Upside
+17.9%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.91 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.