Value
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 67.0x
CRESY · Why this verdict
Why Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. (CRESY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cresud shows insider buying conviction, a 63% margin of safety, and improving Piotroski quality trends, set against a severe expected earnings decline and a confirmed cyclical-trap valuation warning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cresud trades with a 63% margin of safety and an attractive P/E versus peers, despite a headline forward P/E that looks expensive on its own. Bull case | Margin of safety narrows toward parity, or price appreciates toward the intrinsic value estimate, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own warning flags a cyclical trap: forward P/E of 164x versus trailing 6x signals earnings may be troughing in a way that makes the 'cheap' multiple illusory. | ||
Insiders bought $1.29 million in shares over the trailing 90 days (7 buys, 0 sells), signaling management conviction despite the earnings decline. Insider | Insider buying persists or the stock outperforms its sector as insiders were early to accumulate. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buying at just 0.166% of market cap is minor relative to Cresud's size and may not offset a 97% expected earnings decline. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline approximately 97% amid a cyclical peak, a headwind already reflected in the depressed forward outlook. Bear case | The earnings surprise trend turns positive as the cyclical trough passes within four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest deterioration is still underway rather than bottoming, and the weak overall score of 5.0/10 reflects broad-based weakness, not just a temporary dip. | ||
Despite capitulation-level RSI, the 200-day moving average is still rising (+3.9% over 30 days) and a 3.6x average-volume surge on a recent up move suggests the pullback is not a confirmed trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters, confirming the uptrend resumes. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI of 20 signals capitulation-level selling pressure that historically precedes further downside before any base can form. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates improving fundamental quality even as near-term earnings compress. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 in the next annual assessment, confirming fundamentals continue improving. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of -67% FCF/NI, meaning reported earnings are not converting to cash, undermining the Piotroski signal. | ||
Cresud trades with a 63% margin of safety and an attractive P/E versus peers, despite a headline forward P/E that looks expensive on its own.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Margin of safety narrows toward parity, or price appreciates toward the intrinsic value estimate, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe engine's own warning flags a cyclical trap: forward P/E of 164x versus trailing 6x signals earnings may be troughing in a way that makes the 'cheap' multiple illusory.
Insiders bought $1.29 million in shares over the trailing 90 days (7 buys, 0 sells), signaling management conviction despite the earnings decline.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying persists or the stock outperforms its sector as insiders were early to accumulate.
CounterInsider buying at just 0.166% of market cap is minor relative to Cresud's size and may not offset a 97% expected earnings decline.
Earnings are expected to decline approximately 97% amid a cyclical peak, a headwind already reflected in the depressed forward outlook.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend turns positive as the cyclical trough passes within four quarters.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest deterioration is still underway rather than bottoming, and the weak overall score of 5.0/10 reflects broad-based weakness, not just a temporary dip.
Despite capitulation-level RSI, the 200-day moving average is still rising (+3.9% over 30 days) and a 3.6x average-volume surge on a recent up move suggests the pullback is not a confirmed trend reversal.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters, confirming the uptrend resumes.
CounterAn RSI of 20 signals capitulation-level selling pressure that historically precedes further downside before any base can form.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates improving fundamental quality even as near-term earnings compress.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 in the next annual assessment, confirming fundamentals continue improving.
CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of -67% FCF/NI, meaning reported earnings are not converting to cash, undermining the Piotroski signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 1.8 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 23% FCF/NI
Growth
2.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $137,020 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.86
- ▸High IV: 118%
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 5.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.99
Upside
+24.2%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.99 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.8, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 2.3, Catalyst at 4.0, and Value at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.99 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Margin Of Safety Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 100x for 2 consecutive quarters while trailing P/E stays below 10x, confirming the value-trap read.
- P2Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifNet insider buying value falls below $500,000 over the next 90-day window, or the signal flips to BEARISH.
- P3Cyclical Earnings Trough Risk
Trip ifThe company posts a third consecutive earnings miss with a surprise that falls below -20%, indicating the cyclical trough has not yet been reached.
- P4Momentum Pullback Not Breakdown
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for more than 4 consecutive weeks without the stock reclaiming the 200-day moving average.
- P5Piotroski Quality Signal
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio stays below -50% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming earnings-quality deterioration.