Value
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 166.0x
CRESY · Why this verdict
Why Cresud S.A.C.I.F. y A. (CRESY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cresud trades with a 63% margin of safety and an attractive P/E versus peers, despite a headline forward P/E that looks expensive on its own. Bull case | Margin of safety narrows toward parity, or price appreciates toward the intrinsic value estimate, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own warning flags a cyclical trap: forward P/E of 164x versus trailing 6x signals earnings may be troughing in a way that makes the 'cheap' multiple illusory. | ||
Insiders bought $1.29 million in shares over the trailing 90 days (7 buys, 0 sells), signaling management conviction despite the earnings decline. Insider | Insider buying persists or the stock outperforms its sector as insiders were early to accumulate. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider buying at just 0.166% of market cap is minor relative to Cresud's size and may not offset a 97% expected earnings decline. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline approximately 97% amid a cyclical peak, a headwind already reflected in the depressed forward outlook. Bear case | The earnings surprise trend turns positive as the cyclical trough passes within four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest deterioration is still underway rather than bottoming, and the weak overall score of 5.0/10 reflects broad-based weakness, not just a temporary dip. | ||
Despite capitulation-level RSI, the 200-day moving average is still rising (+3.9% over 30 days) and a 3.6x average-volume surge on a recent up move suggests the pullback is not a confirmed trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters, confirming the uptrend resumes. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 20 signals capitulation-level selling pressure that historically precedes further downside before any base can form. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates improving fundamental quality even as near-term earnings compress. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 in the next annual assessment, confirming fundamentals continue improving. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of -67% FCF/NI, meaning reported earnings are not converting to cash, undermining the Piotroski signal. | ||
Cresud trades with a 63% margin of safety and an attractive P/E versus peers, despite a headline forward P/E that looks expensive on its own.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Margin of safety narrows toward parity, or price appreciates toward the intrinsic value estimate, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe engine's own warning flags a cyclical trap: forward P/E of 164x versus trailing 6x signals earnings may be troughing in a way that makes the 'cheap' multiple illusory.
Insiders bought $1.29 million in shares over the trailing 90 days (7 buys, 0 sells), signaling management conviction despite the earnings decline.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying persists or the stock outperforms its sector as insiders were early to accumulate.
CounterInsider buying at just 0.166% of market cap is minor relative to Cresud's size and may not offset a 97% expected earnings decline.
Earnings are expected to decline approximately 97% amid a cyclical peak, a headwind already reflected in the depressed forward outlook.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend turns positive as the cyclical trough passes within four quarters.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses suggest deterioration is still underway rather than bottoming, and the weak overall score of 5.0/10 reflects broad-based weakness, not just a temporary dip.
Despite capitulation-level RSI, the 200-day moving average is still rising (+3.9% over 30 days) and a 3.6x average-volume surge on a recent up move suggests the pullback is not a confirmed trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters, confirming the uptrend resumes.
CounterAn RSI of 20 signals capitulation-level selling pressure that historically precedes further downside before any base can form.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 indicates improving fundamental quality even as near-term earnings compress.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 in the next annual assessment, confirming fundamentals continue improving.
CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality red flag of -67% FCF/NI, meaning reported earnings are not converting to cash, undermining the Piotroski signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cresud shows insider buying conviction, a 63% margin of safety, and improving Piotroski quality trends, set against a severe expected earnings decline and a confirmed cyclical-trap valuation warning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.3 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -67% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
7.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 7.1 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $1,293,646 (0.164% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 4.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸High IV: 195%
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 5.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.36
Upside
+25.0%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.36 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Insider at 7.7, and Peer rank at 6.8; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Momentum at 3.4, and Value at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Margin Of Safety Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 100x for 2 consecutive quarters while trailing P/E stays below 10x, confirming the value-trap read.
- P2Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifNet insider buying value falls below $500,000 over the next 90-day window, or the signal flips to BEARISH.
- P3Cyclical Earnings Trough Risk
Trip ifThe company posts a third consecutive earnings miss with a surprise that falls below -20%, indicating the cyclical trough has not yet been reached.
- P4Momentum Pullback Not Breakdown
Trip ifRSI stays below 30 for more than 4 consecutive weeks without the stock reclaiming the 200-day moving average.
- P5Piotroski Quality Signal
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio stays below -50% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming earnings-quality deterioration.