Value
8.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CRD-B · Why this verdict
Why Crawford & (CRD-B) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crawford & Company Class B is a cheap, cash-generative claims services share with flat revenue and no moat, trading within 0.3% of its analyst target, so almost no upside remains and quality sits at the 4.0 floor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cash conversion is excellent at 246% FCF to net income, but the business has no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of only 4.4 on the 10-point scale. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should continue to exceed net income and fund dividends and debt service. | →Stable |
| CounterA 246% ratio on a small net income base overstates cash strength, and debt-to-equity scores only 4.1/10, so leverage limits how much cash reaches shareholders. | ||
The $11.86 price is only 0.3% below the $11.90 analyst target, while the stop level sits 7.5% below, so reward is far smaller than risk at current levels. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised well above the current price as earnings recover, or the price should consolidate near the target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe target used here includes a 15% analyst haircut, and a small-cap with a 10.5x forward P/E could see targets reset higher after the November report. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.5x and a PEG of 0.05, with the price-to-sales component at the maximum 10.0. Valuation breakdown | Forward earnings should be delivered so the forward multiple stays near or below 10.5x as the price rises. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.05 rests on an earnings rebound from a low base, and net margin scores only 0.9/10, so the low multiple may reflect a low-margin business. | ||
EPS missed estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (by -30% in May and -42% in March 2026), with average surprise of -6.7%, even though August 2026 beat at $0.38 versus $0.28. Last 4 quarters | EPS should come in at or above estimates in the report due in 9 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe August beat of 35.7% and an earnings growth component of 10/10 show earnings are recovering, so earlier misses may reflect a trough. | ||
Quarterly revenue is flat, with the latest $330.0M versus $334.6M a year earlier and a $328.5M next-quarter estimate. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should return to year-over-year growth above $334.6M. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue has held in a $309M to $358M range for 3 years, so growth depends on catastrophe claim volume rather than a structural trend. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 246% FCF to net income, but the business has no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of only 4.4 on the 10-point scale.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should continue to exceed net income and fund dividends and debt service.
CounterA 246% ratio on a small net income base overstates cash strength, and debt-to-equity scores only 4.1/10, so leverage limits how much cash reaches shareholders.
The $11.86 price is only 0.3% below the $11.90 analyst target, while the stop level sits 7.5% below, so reward is far smaller than risk at current levels.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised well above the current price as earnings recover, or the price should consolidate near the target.
CounterThe target used here includes a 15% analyst haircut, and a small-cap with a 10.5x forward P/E could see targets reset higher after the November report.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.5x and a PEG of 0.05, with the price-to-sales component at the maximum 10.0.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward earnings should be delivered so the forward multiple stays near or below 10.5x as the price rises.
CounterA PEG of 0.05 rests on an earnings rebound from a low base, and net margin scores only 0.9/10, so the low multiple may reflect a low-margin business.
EPS missed estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters (by -30% in May and -42% in March 2026), with average surprise of -6.7%, even though August 2026 beat at $0.38 versus $0.28.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above estimates in the report due in 9 days.
CounterThe August beat of 35.7% and an earnings growth component of 10/10 show earnings are recovering, so earlier misses may reflect a trough.
Quarterly revenue is flat, with the latest $330.0M versus $334.6M a year earlier and a $328.5M next-quarter estimate.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should return to year-over-year growth above $334.6M.
CounterRevenue has held in a $309M to $358M range for 3 years, so growth depends on catastrophe claim volume rather than a structural trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 246% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.6 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.12
Upside
+0.8%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.1<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 0.12.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Technical at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.2, Catalyst at 3.7, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Essentially Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $12.45, giving more than 5% upside from the current $11.86.
- P2Cheap Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 10.5x.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 246%.
- P4Inconsistent Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Flat Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $320M from the current $330.0M.