Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CRD-B · Why this verdict
Why Crawford & (CRD-B) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits just below the engine's investability floor at 3.6 versus a 4.0 minimum, driven by the absence of a competitive moat, despite excellent cash conversion of 373% of net income. Quality breakdown | Quality should rise above the 4.0 floor as margins or moat strength improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe excellent cash conversion figure and a current ratio of 4.4 suggest the company generates ample cash despite thin reported margins, which could support a quality score recovery faster than the headline number implies. | ||
Value scores strongly at 8.5, with the notes flagging the stock as attractively valued at a 9.7x forward P/E and an extremely low 0.05 PEG ratio. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near 8.5 as the low multiple persists over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA peer growth rank of 0.0, at the very bottom of its peer group, suggests the cheap PEG ratio may reflect a shrinking earnings base rather than durable value. | ||
The bear case flags 3 of 5 value-trap signals, citing revenue declining 32% year-over-year, operating margin compression to -673.9%, and negative free cash flow. Bear case | If this risk holds, expect revenue and margins to remain under pressure over the next few reported periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe growth notes elsewhere in the same record cite a much smaller revenue decline of just -1%, a notable inconsistency with the -32% figure in the value-trap flag. | ||
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 3.8 versus a 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate also narrowly failed at 1.06 versus a 1.5 minimum, within a range-bound setup showing RSI at a neutral 46. Engine gate (failed) | For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to climb above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio needs to clear 1.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry ratio of 1.06 is only modestly below the 1.5 threshold, and price still sits above the 200-day moving average, so the setup isn't decisively broken. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of -30.43%, -42.31%, and -10.2%, pulling the trailing average surprise to -18.15%. Earnings | If this pattern holds, expect continued misses with a negative average surprise in the report due in 30 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one beat in the last four quarters (+10.34%) shows the company is still capable of outperforming, and estimates may be resetting lower after the recent misses, which could make the next comparison easier to clear. | ||
Quality sits just below the engine's investability floor at 3.6 versus a 4.0 minimum, driven by the absence of a competitive moat, despite excellent cash conversion of 373% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should rise above the 4.0 floor as margins or moat strength improve over the next 12 months.
CounterThe excellent cash conversion figure and a current ratio of 4.4 suggest the company generates ample cash despite thin reported margins, which could support a quality score recovery faster than the headline number implies.
Value scores strongly at 8.5, with the notes flagging the stock as attractively valued at a 9.7x forward P/E and an extremely low 0.05 PEG ratio.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near 8.5 as the low multiple persists over the next 12 months.
CounterA peer growth rank of 0.0, at the very bottom of its peer group, suggests the cheap PEG ratio may reflect a shrinking earnings base rather than durable value.
The bear case flags 3 of 5 value-trap signals, citing revenue declining 32% year-over-year, operating margin compression to -673.9%, and negative free cash flow.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this risk holds, expect revenue and margins to remain under pressure over the next few reported periods.
CounterThe growth notes elsewhere in the same record cite a much smaller revenue decline of just -1%, a notable inconsistency with the -32% figure in the value-trap flag.
Momentum failed the engine's gate at 3.8 versus a 4.5 threshold, and the asymmetry gate also narrowly failed at 1.06 versus a 1.5 minimum, within a range-bound setup showing RSI at a neutral 46.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- For the setup to become actionable, momentum needs to climb above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio needs to clear 1.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe asymmetry ratio of 1.06 is only modestly below the 1.5 threshold, and price still sits above the 200-day moving average, so the setup isn't decisively broken.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of -30.43%, -42.31%, and -10.2%, pulling the trailing average surprise to -18.15%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If this pattern holds, expect continued misses with a negative average surprise in the report due in 30 days.
CounterThe one beat in the last four quarters (+10.34%) shows the company is still capable of outperforming, and estimates may be resetting lower after the recent misses, which could make the next comparison easier to clear.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Crawford & Company's Class B shares screen cheap on a PEG basis with strong cash conversion, but a value-trap flag citing a steep revenue decline sits in tension with milder growth data elsewhere in the record, both the momentum and asymmetry gates have failed in a range-bound setup, and three of the last four quarters missed earnings, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 373% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 7.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
Catalyst
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.31
Upside
+16.4%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Technical at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.4, Peer rank at 2.4, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation On Peg Basis
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.5 as the multiple normalizes.
- P2Value Trap Flag With Data Discrepancy
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above -5% YoY, well inside the milder decline cited elsewhere in the data, contradicting the -32% value-trap flag.
- P3Failed Momentum And Asymmetry Gates
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 and asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, clearing both failed gates.
- P4Persistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company beats or meets earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive reported quarters, with average surprise rising above -5%.
- P5Quality Below Investability Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.6.