Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
CPF · Why this verdict
Why Central Pacific Financial Corp (CPF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality notes cite strong margins of 28% and a strong Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, despite no distinct competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Margins and the Piotroski score should hold at these strong levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe notes explicitly flag no competitive moat, meaning strong current margins may be more cyclical or rate-environment-driven for a regional bank than a durable structural advantage. | ||
The bull case cites an attractive valuation, with value scoring a near-max 9.0, driven by a 10.7x forward P/E and a low 0.54 PEG ratio. Bull case | The value score should hold near 9.0 as the low multiple persists over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterValue confidence is only 0.67, and the stock is also flagged as near its 52-week high and at its analyst target, so the cheap read may already be reflected in the price rather than signaling further room to run. | ||
The engine's risk-reward gate failed with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.31, since the analyst target has already been reached and the stock trades just 2.3% below its 52-week high, leaving a resistance-based take-profit only 0.4% above the current price against 5.0% downside. Bear case | If this holds, expect the stock to trade capped near its resistance level without material appreciation until a new, higher target is established. | →Stable |
| CounterAn upcoming earnings report in 20 days, combined with the golden-cross breakout setup, could catalyze a break to new highs that resets both the resistance level and the analyst target. | ||
The bear case flags 2 consecutive earnings misses as a risk, though the earnings data show the two most recently reported quarters were both beats (5.88% and 16.44% surprises), with an overall average surprise of 4.17% across the last four quarters. Bear case | If the recent 2-quarter beat pattern is the more current signal, expect the next report to also come in at or above estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two actual misses in the trailing four-quarter data (-1.35%, -4.29%) both occurred in the older two quarters, not the most recent two, suggesting the bear-case flag may reflect a timing lag versus the latest reported results. | ||
A negative news-driven modifier moved the recommendation from a hold-if-holding stance to a sell-if-holding stance, per the action note, even though the underlying quantitative setup shows a breakout. Engine summary | If this news-driven caution is warranted, expect the negative sentiment behind the modifier to persist or be confirmed by fundamentals over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe news-driven downgrade is a soft overlay on top of gates that otherwise remain compliant (only the asymmetry gate failed), so this could prove to be an overly cautious short-term reaction rather than a lasting negative development. | ||
Quality notes cite strong margins of 28% and a strong Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, despite no distinct competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and the Piotroski score should hold at these strong levels over the next 12 months.
CounterThe notes explicitly flag no competitive moat, meaning strong current margins may be more cyclical or rate-environment-driven for a regional bank than a durable structural advantage.
The bull case cites an attractive valuation, with value scoring a near-max 9.0, driven by a 10.7x forward P/E and a low 0.54 PEG ratio.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near 9.0 as the low multiple persists over the next 12 months.
CounterValue confidence is only 0.67, and the stock is also flagged as near its 52-week high and at its analyst target, so the cheap read may already be reflected in the price rather than signaling further room to run.
The engine's risk-reward gate failed with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.31, since the analyst target has already been reached and the stock trades just 2.3% below its 52-week high, leaving a resistance-based take-profit only 0.4% above the current price against 5.0% downside.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If this holds, expect the stock to trade capped near its resistance level without material appreciation until a new, higher target is established.
CounterAn upcoming earnings report in 20 days, combined with the golden-cross breakout setup, could catalyze a break to new highs that resets both the resistance level and the analyst target.
The bear case flags 2 consecutive earnings misses as a risk, though the earnings data show the two most recently reported quarters were both beats (5.88% and 16.44% surprises), with an overall average surprise of 4.17% across the last four quarters.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- If the recent 2-quarter beat pattern is the more current signal, expect the next report to also come in at or above estimates.
CounterThe two actual misses in the trailing four-quarter data (-1.35%, -4.29%) both occurred in the older two quarters, not the most recent two, suggesting the bear-case flag may reflect a timing lag versus the latest reported results.
A negative news-driven modifier moved the recommendation from a hold-if-holding stance to a sell-if-holding stance, per the action note, even though the underlying quantitative setup shows a breakout.
→StableEngine summary
- Expectation
- If this news-driven caution is warranted, expect the negative sentiment behind the modifier to persist or be confirmed by fundamentals over the next few months.
CounterThe news-driven downgrade is a soft overlay on top of gates that otherwise remain compliant (only the asymmetry gate failed), so this could prove to be an overly cautious short-term reaction rather than a lasting negative development.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Central Pacific Financial screens attractively valued with strong margins and a technical breakout, but the analyst target has already been reached near a 52-week high, a negative news-driven modifier has downgraded the stance to sell-if-holding, and the bear case's consecutive-miss flag sits in tension with two recent earnings beats, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 6.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.78
Upside
-11.8%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 9.0; weakest: Catalyst at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Insider at 7.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.7, Momentum at 4.9, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation
Trip ifValue score falls below 6.0 from the current 9.0 as the multiple re-rates higher.
- P2Strong Margin Quality Profile
Trip ifReported margin falls below 15% from the current 28%.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0.5, moving out of negative territory from the current -1.31 reading.
- P4Consecutive Miss Flag Vs Recent Beats
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% when the company reports around July 24, 2026, breaking the current 2-quarter beat streak.
- P5Negative News Driven Modifier
Trip ifStock price rises more than 5% over the next month without a negative fundamental catalyst emerging, indicating the news-driven downgrade was overly cautious.