Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
CPF · Why this verdict
Why Central Pacific Financial Corp (CPF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Central Pacific Financial is a profitable Hawaii bank with 29% margins, a 10.5x forward P/E and a steady earnings beat record, but its loan book is 80% real estate in one state and the price of $37.69 is already above the $35.49 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real estate-related loans are 80.0% of the loan portfolio and the franchise is concentrated geographically in Hawaii, tying results to one regional property market. Bear case | Credit quality on real estate loans should stay stable and loan growth should continue without a rise in the real estate share above 80%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single-state franchise gives local underwriting knowledge and pricing power, and net margin of 29% shows current credit costs are manageable. | ||
Price of $37.69 is above the $35.49 analyst target (upside of -5.8%), so there is no analyst-supported upside at the current level. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank targets lag earnings upgrades, and a breakout with accumulation can keep running past a stale target when earnings keep beating. | ||
Margins are strong at 29%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.5x and a PEG of 0.54. Quality breakdown | Net margin should hold near 29% and forward earnings should support the 10.5x multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank has no competitive moat and return on assets scores just 0.7/10, so strong margins may compress if funding costs rise. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and quarterly EPS has risen from $0.73 to $0.80, with average surprise of 5.8%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should come in at or above estimates in the report due in 4 days and stay at or above $0.80 per quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeat sizes have shrunk to 2.2% in the July quarter, and the prior year included 2 misses, so the cushion over estimates is thin. | ||
Momentum scores 7.6 with rising on-balance volume and a golden cross, with price above its 200-day average and a 3.2% dividend yield. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its 200-day average with volume accumulation continuing. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith earnings due in 4 days and price above the analyst target, a breakout can fail on one weak quarter, and the technical score is only 3.1. | ||
Real estate-related loans are 80.0% of the loan portfolio and the franchise is concentrated geographically in Hawaii, tying results to one regional property market.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality on real estate loans should stay stable and loan growth should continue without a rise in the real estate share above 80%.
CounterA single-state franchise gives local underwriting knowledge and pricing power, and net margin of 29% shows current credit costs are manageable.
Price of $37.69 is above the $35.49 analyst target (upside of -5.8%), so there is no analyst-supported upside at the current level.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months.
CounterBank targets lag earnings upgrades, and a breakout with accumulation can keep running past a stale target when earnings keep beating.
Margins are strong at 29%, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and the stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.5x and a PEG of 0.54.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should hold near 29% and forward earnings should support the 10.5x multiple.
CounterThe bank has no competitive moat and return on assets scores just 0.7/10, so strong margins may compress if funding costs rise.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and quarterly EPS has risen from $0.73 to $0.80, with average surprise of 5.8%.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above estimates in the report due in 4 days and stay at or above $0.80 per quarter.
CounterBeat sizes have shrunk to 2.2% in the July quarter, and the prior year included 2 misses, so the cushion over estimates is thin.
Momentum scores 7.6 with rising on-balance volume and a golden cross, with price above its 200-day average and a 3.2% dividend yield.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its 200-day average with volume accumulation continuing.
CounterWith earnings due in 4 days and price above the analyst target, a breakout can fail on one weak quarter, and the technical score is only 3.1.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 7.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.78
Upside
-6.3%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.1, Value at 7.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hawaii Real Estate Loan Concentration
Trip ifReal estate-related loans exceeds 85% of the loan portfolio from the current 80.0%.
- P2Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $39.60, giving more than 5% upside from the current $37.69.
- P3Strong Margins Attractive Valuation
Trip ifNet margin falls below 22% from the current 29%.
- P4Steady Eps Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Breakout Momentum Institutional Quality
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.6.