Central Pacific Financial screens attractively valued with strong margins and a technical breakout, but the analyst target has already been reached near a 52-week high, a negative news-driven modifier has downgraded the stance to sell-if-holding, and the bear case's consecutive-miss flag sits in tension with two recent earnings beats, keeping conviction and position sizing at essentially zero.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margin Quality Profile→Stable
- Attractive Valuation→Stable
- Target Reached Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Central Pacific Financial Corp (CPF) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Sell if holding. At $37.58, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate-related loans (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii.
Central Pacific Financial Corp. is the Hawaii-based holding company for Central Pacific Bank, the state's fourth-largest depository institution by deposit market share, operating 27 branches and 55 ATMs across Oahu, Maui, Hawaii Island, and Kauai. The bank's loan book is... Read more
Sell if holding. At $37.58, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate-related loans (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate-related loans80%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 80% of our loan portfolio at December 31, 2025 consisted of real estate-related loans, including residential mortgage loans, home equity loans, commercial mortgage loans, and construction loans.'
- HIGHGeographicHawaii10-K Item 1: 'Our business activities are concentrated primarily in Hawaii.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $37.58, A.R:R is negative (-1.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate-related loans (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $35.65. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $38.42 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $35.65. Stop-loss: $35.65.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate-related loans (80.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Central Pacific Financial Corp trades at a P/E of 12.9 (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover CPF with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $39.
What does Central Pacific Financial Corp do?Central Pacific Financial Corp. is the Hawaii-based holding company for Central Pacific Bank, the state's...
Central Pacific Financial Corp. is the Hawaii-based holding company for Central Pacific Bank, the state's fourth-largest depository institution by deposit market share, operating 27 branches and 55 ATMs across Oahu, Maui, Hawaii Island, and Kauai. The bank's loan book is concentrated in real estate, with approximately 80% of the portfolio in residential mortgage, home equity, commercial mortgage, and construction loans, and its business activities are concentrated primarily in Hawaii, tying results closely to the state's real estate and tourism-driven economy.