Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
CPAC · Why this verdict
Why Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. (CPAC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cementos Pacasmayo is a cash-generative cement producer with a 4.8% dividend, strong momentum and low risk scores, but the price of $12.73 is already above the $10.87 analyst target, RSI is overbought at 80, and earnings are due in 2 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price of $12.73 is above the $10.87 analyst target (upside of -14.6%), so there is no analyst-supported upside at the current level. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets lag a rally driven by earnings growth of 10/10 on the growth score, and strong volume accumulation can carry the price well past a stale target. | ||
Momentum scores 8.0 with rising on-balance volume and price above its 200-day average, but RSI is 80, which is overbought, and the price is 1.1% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its moving averages with volume accumulation, or reset from the overbought RSI without breaking its $12.26 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 80 with earnings due in 2 days leaves the stock exposed to a sharp pullback on any disappointment, and the August-to-February earnings record includes a miss. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 208% FCF to net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an operating margin component of 9.8/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should keep exceeding net income, supporting the 4.8% dividend. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 4.0/10 and net margin 4.7/10, so high cash conversion may reflect timing of capital spending rather than durable surplus. | ||
Forward P/E is 15.0x with a PEG of 0.24, and the growth score is 8.2/10 with the earnings growth component at the maximum 10.0. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should continue so that the PEG stays well below 1 and forward earnings support the current multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings per share are tiny (quarterly actuals of $0.03 to $0.05) so percentage growth is volatile, and the February 2026 quarter was a loss of $0.01 against a $0.05 estimate. | ||
Quarterly revenue has held at a steady $556M to $574M for the last 4 quarters, with the latest at $558.9M versus $484.1M a year earlier. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should stay at or above $555M over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe revenue figures are provisional and flat to down over the last 4 quarters, so the year-over-year gain may be from a weak base rather than accelerating demand. | ||
Price of $12.73 is above the $10.87 analyst target (upside of -14.6%), so there is no analyst-supported upside at the current level.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months.
CounterTargets lag a rally driven by earnings growth of 10/10 on the growth score, and strong volume accumulation can carry the price well past a stale target.
Momentum scores 8.0 with rising on-balance volume and price above its 200-day average, but RSI is 80, which is overbought, and the price is 1.1% from its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages with volume accumulation, or reset from the overbought RSI without breaking its $12.26 stop.
CounterRSI of 80 with earnings due in 2 days leaves the stock exposed to a sharp pullback on any disappointment, and the August-to-February earnings record includes a miss.
Cash conversion is excellent at 208% FCF to net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an operating margin component of 9.8/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should keep exceeding net income, supporting the 4.8% dividend.
CounterDividend safety scores only 4.0/10 and net margin 4.7/10, so high cash conversion may reflect timing of capital spending rather than durable surplus.
Forward P/E is 15.0x with a PEG of 0.24, and the growth score is 8.2/10 with the earnings growth component at the maximum 10.0.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should continue so that the PEG stays well below 1 and forward earnings support the current multiple.
CounterEarnings per share are tiny (quarterly actuals of $0.03 to $0.05) so percentage growth is volatile, and the February 2026 quarter was a loss of $0.01 against a $0.05 estimate.
Quarterly revenue has held at a steady $556M to $574M for the last 4 quarters, with the latest at $558.9M versus $484.1M a year earlier.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay at or above $555M over the next 12 months.
CounterThe revenue figures are provisional and flat to down over the last 4 quarters, so the year-over-year gain may be from a weak base rather than accelerating demand.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.3 |
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 208% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 86)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 4.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.23
Upside
-15.0%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.9
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3; weakest: Catalyst at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3, Growth at 8.2, and Value at 7.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.9, Technical at 4.2, and Sentiment at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $13.40, giving more than 5% upside from the current $12.73.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 208%.
- P3Overbought Strong Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $12.26 stop level, more than 3% under the current $12.73.
- P4Cheap Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Steady Quarterly Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $484M, the year-ago level, from the current $558.9M.