Should you buy Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. (CPAC)?
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Engine methodology range
CPAC currently trades below the base anchor, in the lower half of the engine methodology range.
Engine methodology range — mechanically derived from pipeline gate outputs + peer-multiple inputs. Not an analyst price target. JSON-LD emission gated pending counsel review.
What the engine is tracking
- Analyst Target Already Exceeded→Stable
- Overbought Strong Momentum↑Improving
- Excellent Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 5 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $13.40, giving more than 5% upside from the current $12.73.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 208%.
- P3Overbought Strong Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the $12.26 stop level, more than 3% under the current $12.73.
- P4Cheap Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Steady Quarterly Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $484M, the year-ago level, from the current $558.9M.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. (CPAC) is HOLD_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 6.7/10 at $12.79. None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) cleared their gates — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals rather than directional conviction.
HOLD flips toward BUY_WAIT if reward-to-risk (NEGATIVE) clears AND a co-confirming gate triggers. HOLD flips toward SELL if any of the currently-passing gates drop below threshold OR three or more dimensions fall below 4 simultaneously.
The engine is not issuing fresh-money entry targets at the current verdict. The technical entry zone is around — with a technical stop near $12.51 for existing positions. Asymmetric R:R is -2.23, below the threshold (≥2.0) at which the engine would actively flag fresh capital. The engine's sizing output: AVOID at this asymmetry level (no fresh-capital deployment).
On the bull side: Attractive valuation; Strong growth profile; Positive momentum. On the bear side: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (-15.0% upside), V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates CPAC — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Attractive valuation
- ▸Strong growth profile
- ▸Positive momentum
Bear case
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- ▸Near 52-week high (0.6% away)
- ▸Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1