Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- â–¸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- â–¸PEG: 0.08
- â–¸Attractively valued
CMPR · Why this verdict
Why Cimpress (CMPR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cimpress offers exceptional free-cash-flow conversion at 298% of net income and three consecutive earnings beats — including a 214% upside surprise in the most recent quarter — but an extreme risk profile combining high short interest (13%), a put/call ratio of 6.80, and implied volatility at 91% makes this an aggressive-suitability setup despite the favorable technical and quality signals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow at 298% of net income is a standout quality signal, indicating that the business generates nearly three times more cash than its reported profits suggest — a characteristic that supports balance sheet strength and the ability to invest in growth or reduce debt without relying on external financing. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% for the next four reported quarters, confirming that the cash conversion advantage is structural rather than one-time. | →Stable |
| CounterAn FCF-to-net-income ratio above 100% can reflect accounting timing effects or aggressive non-cash add-backs rather than genuine cash generation superiority; if these items normalize, the ratio could compress sharply toward or below net income. | ||
Three of the last four reported quarters beat consensus estimates, with the most recent quarter delivering a 214% positive surprise and the prior two delivering 18.9% and 5.3% beats — an accelerating pattern of earnings outperformance that suggests the company has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | Positive EPS surprises continue in the next two reported quarters, sustaining the beat streak established over the past three quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe fourth quarter (oldest in the set) was a miss of -204%, a single catastrophic swing that illustrates the earnings volatility this business can produce; the three subsequent beats may not signal a structural change if results remain lumpy. | ||
With RSI at 7 and the stock near the lower Bollinger band against the backdrop of an above-200-day-MA uptrend, the technical setup classifies as an oversold bounce within an intact longer-term trend — a pattern associated with mean-reversion recoveries when selling pressure exhausts. Momentum breakdown | The stock recovers above $94.77 (the consensus price target, implying 13.7% upside) within 12 months as the oversold condition unwinds. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI can remain depressed for extended periods during fundamental deterioration; falling on-balance volume (distribution) alongside the oversold reading suggests sellers are actively offloading shares, which can overwhelm the bounce signal. | ||
Short interest at 13% of float, a put/call ratio of 6.80, and implied volatility at 91% combine into a risk score that falls below the minimum floor — signaling that a significant part of the market is betting against this stock, which creates the potential for amplified downside if any negative development materializes. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 5% of float and implied volatility compresses below 50%, indicating that the risk premium has normalized and the most aggressive bearish positioning has been covered. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest and elevated put/call ratios are contrarian indicators that can fuel explosive upside if a catalyst forces short covering; the 13% short position represents latent buying demand that could be unlocked by a positive earnings surprise. | ||
Free cash flow at 298% of net income is a standout quality signal, indicating that the business generates nearly three times more cash than its reported profits suggest — a characteristic that supports balance sheet strength and the ability to invest in growth or reduce debt without relying on external financing.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 150% for the next four reported quarters, confirming that the cash conversion advantage is structural rather than one-time.
CounterAn FCF-to-net-income ratio above 100% can reflect accounting timing effects or aggressive non-cash add-backs rather than genuine cash generation superiority; if these items normalize, the ratio could compress sharply toward or below net income.
Three of the last four reported quarters beat consensus estimates, with the most recent quarter delivering a 214% positive surprise and the prior two delivering 18.9% and 5.3% beats — an accelerating pattern of earnings outperformance that suggests the company has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Positive EPS surprises continue in the next two reported quarters, sustaining the beat streak established over the past three quarters.
CounterThe fourth quarter (oldest in the set) was a miss of -204%, a single catastrophic swing that illustrates the earnings volatility this business can produce; the three subsequent beats may not signal a structural change if results remain lumpy.
With RSI at 7 and the stock near the lower Bollinger band against the backdrop of an above-200-day-MA uptrend, the technical setup classifies as an oversold bounce within an intact longer-term trend — a pattern associated with mean-reversion recoveries when selling pressure exhausts.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock recovers above $94.77 (the consensus price target, implying 13.7% upside) within 12 months as the oversold condition unwinds.
CounterRSI can remain depressed for extended periods during fundamental deterioration; falling on-balance volume (distribution) alongside the oversold reading suggests sellers are actively offloading shares, which can overwhelm the bounce signal.
Short interest at 13% of float, a put/call ratio of 6.80, and implied volatility at 91% combine into a risk score that falls below the minimum floor — signaling that a significant part of the market is betting against this stock, which creates the potential for amplified downside if any negative development materializes.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 5% of float and implied volatility compresses below 50%, indicating that the risk premium has normalized and the most aggressive bearish positioning has been covered.
CounterHigh short interest and elevated put/call ratios are contrarian indicators that can fuel explosive upside if a catalyst forces short covering; the 13% short position represents latent buying demand that could be unlocked by a positive earnings surprise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- â–¸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 9.1 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.2 |
- â–¸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
- â–¸Volume surge (2.8x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- â–¸Analyst upside: 90%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,001,600 (0.202% of mkt cap)
- â–¸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- â–¸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- â–¸Extreme gap down (-8.7%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| beta | 3.9 |
- â–¸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- â–¸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:4.8>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:96d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
4.83
Upside
+61.3%
Downside
12.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.83.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Technical at 7.1, and Growth at 6.9; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, Momentum at 3.1, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating that the exceptional cash conversion advantage has materially compressed.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Acceleration
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, ending the recent beat streak.
- P3Oversold Bounce Technical SetupTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below $70.83, more than 15% below the current level of $83.33, indicating that the oversold bounce thesis has failed to materialize.
- P4Extreme Risk Profile
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% of float for 2 consecutive months, signaling that the extreme bearish positioning has substantially unwound.