Value
4.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| p ocf | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 9.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
CLDT · Why this verdict
Why Chatham Lodging Trust (REIT) (CLDT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chatham Lodging Trust is a hotel REIT with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, strong cash conversion and a breakout chart, but at $14.03 the price is already above the $12.18 analyst target, so little upside remains.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price of $14.03 is above the $12.18 analyst target (upside of -13.2%), so the stock has no analyst-supported upside at the current level. Analyst target | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the share price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light, so the target is a thin signal and may simply be stale; a breakout with rising volume can keep running well past a lagging target. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with average surprise of 95%. Last 4 quarters | EPS should keep beating estimates in the report due in 12 days and in following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe big surprise percentages come off tiny or negative estimates (for example estimate of $0.01 versus actual $0.03), so beats of this size say little about earnings power. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 637% FCF to net income with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, while return on equity and net margin remain weak. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should keep exceeding net income and return components should improve from their current low levels. | →Stable |
| CounterA 637% ratio is driven by a very small net income base and by non-cash depreciation, so it overstates how much cash is truly distributable. | ||
Momentum scores 7.0 with rising on-balance volume, a golden cross, and price above the 200-day average and 4.8% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its moving averages with volume accumulation continuing. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is near its 52-week high and above the analyst target, so a breakout can fail quickly, and implied volatility of 112% signals a wide range of outcomes. | ||
Latest quarterly revenue of $87.8M is up from $80.3M a year earlier, showing growth that follows the usual seasonal pattern of stronger summer quarters. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach the $87.2M next-quarter estimate level and stay above year-ago quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHotel revenue swings from $67.5M to $87.8M between quarters, and the third quarter of 2024 ($87.2M) shows little growth over two years. | ||
Price of $14.03 is above the $12.18 analyst target (upside of -13.2%), so the stock has no analyst-supported upside at the current level.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or the share price should consolidate back toward the target, over the next 12 months.
CounterCoverage is light, so the target is a thin signal and may simply be stale; a breakout with rising volume can keep running well past a lagging target.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with average surprise of 95%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates in the report due in 12 days and in following quarters.
CounterThe big surprise percentages come off tiny or negative estimates (for example estimate of $0.01 versus actual $0.03), so beats of this size say little about earnings power.
Cash conversion is excellent at 637% FCF to net income with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, while return on equity and net margin remain weak.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should keep exceeding net income and return components should improve from their current low levels.
CounterA 637% ratio is driven by a very small net income base and by non-cash depreciation, so it overstates how much cash is truly distributable.
Momentum scores 7.0 with rising on-balance volume, a golden cross, and price above the 200-day average and 4.8% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages with volume accumulation continuing.
CounterThe stock is near its 52-week high and above the analyst target, so a breakout can fail quickly, and implied volatility of 112% signals a wide range of outcomes.
Latest quarterly revenue of $87.8M is up from $80.3M a year earlier, showing growth that follows the usual seasonal pattern of stronger summer quarters.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $87.2M next-quarter estimate level and stay above year-ago quarters.
CounterHotel revenue swings from $67.5M to $87.8M between quarters, and the third quarter of 2024 ($87.2M) shows little growth over two years.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.5 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 637% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 99%
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.50
Upside
-17.2%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.50 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Momentum at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Value at 4.7, and Quality at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $14.75, giving more than 5% upside from the current $14.03.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Strong Cash Conversion Thin Returns
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 637%.
- P4Breakout Momentum Rising Volume
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.0.
- P5Seasonal Revenue Recovery
Trip ifYear-over-year quarterly revenue growth falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.