Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.52
CHRW · Why this verdict
Why C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
C.H. Robinson brings four straight earnings beats with rising analyst estimates, but the stock trades just 0.4% below its near-term price target, producing an unfavorable risk/reward, while declining revenues and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.0 suggest the setup favors patience rather than new exposure at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise near 9.5%, and earnings estimates have been trending upward — a combination that typically signals continued upward revisions. Bull case | EPS surprise remains positive for the next 2 quarters and analyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year continue to rise. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFour consecutive beats in a freight-brokerage recovery cycle may reflect a temporarily favorable rate environment rather than durable structural outperformance; estimates rising into a cycle peak can reverse sharply if freight volumes soften. | ||
With the stock trading just 0.4% below its near-term price target, available upside is negligible while downside to the nearest support level is materially larger — the risk/reward ratio is unfavorable and the setup does not meet the asymmetry threshold required for a new position. Price targets | This pillar is falsified if analyst consensus price targets rise above $210, creating more than 10% upside from the current price of $190.25. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf the earnings beat streak continues and analysts raise their targets — a pattern seen over the last four quarters — the price ceiling could lift, restoring a more favorable setup. | ||
Revenue has declined approximately 1% year-over-year, and with no discernible competitive moat noted in the quality assessment, the business struggles to expand market share or sustain pricing power in a commoditized logistics market. Growth breakdown | This pillar is falsified if revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFreight brokerage is inherently cyclical; revenue contraction during a downturn is expected, and a cycle upturn could drive rapid top-line recovery without requiring any structural improvement. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 2.00 — well above neutral — signals that options market participants have accumulated meaningfully more bearish exposure than bullish, suggesting either institutional hedging or directional conviction on the downside. Risk breakdown | This pillar is falsified if the put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a structural shift in market positioning. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put buying can reflect portfolio hedging by existing long holders rather than directional pessimism; the bearish positioning may represent protection rather than conviction on the downside. | ||
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise near 9.5%, and earnings estimates have been trending upward — a combination that typically signals continued upward revisions.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for the next 2 quarters and analyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year continue to rise.
CounterFour consecutive beats in a freight-brokerage recovery cycle may reflect a temporarily favorable rate environment rather than durable structural outperformance; estimates rising into a cycle peak can reverse sharply if freight volumes soften.
With the stock trading just 0.4% below its near-term price target, available upside is negligible while downside to the nearest support level is materially larger — the risk/reward ratio is unfavorable and the setup does not meet the asymmetry threshold required for a new position.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if analyst consensus price targets rise above $210, creating more than 10% upside from the current price of $190.25.
CounterIf the earnings beat streak continues and analysts raise their targets — a pattern seen over the last four quarters — the price ceiling could lift, restoring a more favorable setup.
Revenue has declined approximately 1% year-over-year, and with no discernible competitive moat noted in the quality assessment, the business struggles to expand market share or sustain pricing power in a commoditized logistics market.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterFreight brokerage is inherently cyclical; revenue contraction during a downturn is expected, and a cycle upturn could drive rapid top-line recovery without requiring any structural improvement.
A put-to-call ratio of 2.00 — well above neutral — signals that options market participants have accumulated meaningfully more bearish exposure than bullish, suggesting either institutional hedging or directional conviction on the downside.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if the put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a structural shift in market positioning.
CounterElevated put buying can reflect portfolio hedging by existing long holders rather than directional pessimism; the bearish positioning may represent protection rather than conviction on the downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 4.1 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 39%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 51% FCF/NI
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.9 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.61
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.53
Upside
+29.8%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Technical at 7.1, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Quality at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat With Rising Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Target Reached Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $210, creating more than 10% upside from the current price of $190.25.
- P3Declining Revenue No Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Put Call Options Skew
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks.