Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.4 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.63
CHRW · Why this verdict
Why C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
C.H. Robinson brings four straight earnings beats with rising analyst estimates, but the stock trades just 0.4% below its near-term price target, producing an unfavorable risk/reward, while declining revenues and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 2.0 suggest the setup favors patience rather than new exposure at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise near 9.5%, and earnings estimates have been trending upward — a combination that typically signals continued upward revisions. Bull case | EPS surprise remains positive for the next 2 quarters and analyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year continue to rise. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive beats in a freight-brokerage recovery cycle may reflect a temporarily favorable rate environment rather than durable structural outperformance; estimates rising into a cycle peak can reverse sharply if freight volumes soften. | ||
With the stock trading just 0.4% below its near-term price target, available upside is negligible while downside to the nearest support level is materially larger — the risk/reward ratio is unfavorable and the setup does not meet the asymmetry threshold required for a new position. Price targets | This pillar is falsified if analyst consensus price targets rise above $210, creating more than 10% upside from the current price of $190.25. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf the earnings beat streak continues and analysts raise their targets — a pattern seen over the last four quarters — the price ceiling could lift, restoring a more favorable setup. | ||
Revenue has declined approximately 1% year-over-year, and with no discernible competitive moat noted in the quality assessment, the business struggles to expand market share or sustain pricing power in a commoditized logistics market. Growth breakdown | This pillar is falsified if revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFreight brokerage is inherently cyclical; revenue contraction during a downturn is expected, and a cycle upturn could drive rapid top-line recovery without requiring any structural improvement. | ||
A put-to-call ratio of 2.00 — well above neutral — signals that options market participants have accumulated meaningfully more bearish exposure than bullish, suggesting either institutional hedging or directional conviction on the downside. Risk breakdown | This pillar is falsified if the put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a structural shift in market positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put buying can reflect portfolio hedging by existing long holders rather than directional pessimism; the bearish positioning may represent protection rather than conviction on the downside. | ||
The company has beaten analyst estimates in each of the last four consecutive quarters with an average positive surprise near 9.5%, and earnings estimates have been trending upward — a combination that typically signals continued upward revisions.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for the next 2 quarters and analyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year continue to rise.
CounterFour consecutive beats in a freight-brokerage recovery cycle may reflect a temporarily favorable rate environment rather than durable structural outperformance; estimates rising into a cycle peak can reverse sharply if freight volumes soften.
With the stock trading just 0.4% below its near-term price target, available upside is negligible while downside to the nearest support level is materially larger — the risk/reward ratio is unfavorable and the setup does not meet the asymmetry threshold required for a new position.
↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if analyst consensus price targets rise above $210, creating more than 10% upside from the current price of $190.25.
CounterIf the earnings beat streak continues and analysts raise their targets — a pattern seen over the last four quarters — the price ceiling could lift, restoring a more favorable setup.
Revenue has declined approximately 1% year-over-year, and with no discernible competitive moat noted in the quality assessment, the business struggles to expand market share or sustain pricing power in a commoditized logistics market.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterFreight brokerage is inherently cyclical; revenue contraction during a downturn is expected, and a cycle upturn could drive rapid top-line recovery without requiring any structural improvement.
A put-to-call ratio of 2.00 — well above neutral — signals that options market participants have accumulated meaningfully more bearish exposure than bullish, suggesting either institutional hedging or directional conviction on the downside.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is falsified if the put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks, indicating a structural shift in market positioning.
CounterElevated put buying can reflect portfolio hedging by existing long holders rather than directional pessimism; the bearish positioning may represent protection rather than conviction on the downside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.5 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $150
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.95
Upside
+7.4%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Technical at 8.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Growth at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.95 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat With Rising Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Target Reached Unfavorable Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $210, creating more than 10% upside from the current price of $190.25.
- P3Declining Revenue No Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Elevated Put Call Options Skew
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive weeks.