Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.42
CHKP · Why this verdict
Why Check Point Software Technologi (CHKP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is weak, with revenue growth scoring 2.8/10 and quarterly revenue of $674M versus $665M a year earlier. Bear case | Revenue growth rises above 6% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMature security vendors can lift earnings through buybacks and margin discipline even with flat revenue. | ||
Check Point earns an excellent 38% ROE with 38% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 67% FCF/NI, so cash generation trails reported profit. | ||
The company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with a 23.0% average surprise. Catalyst breakdown | EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWith earnings in 9 days and the price already well above the analyst target, expectations are elevated and a smaller beat could disappoint. | ||
At $159.03 the stock is 15.3% above the $134.75 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 14.1x, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets toward the current price as results beat estimates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum scores 8.3/10 with rising volume, so the market may be pricing results ahead of analyst targets. | ||
Growth is weak, with revenue growth scoring 2.8/10 and quarterly revenue of $674M versus $665M a year earlier.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rises above 6% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterMature security vendors can lift earnings through buybacks and margin discipline even with flat revenue.
Check Point earns an excellent 38% ROE with 38% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 67% FCF/NI, so cash generation trails reported profit.
The company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with a 23.0% average surprise.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters.
CounterWith earnings in 9 days and the price already well above the analyst target, expectations are elevated and a smaller beat could disappoint.
At $159.03 the stock is 15.3% above the $134.75 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 14.1x, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the current price as results beat estimates.
CounterMomentum scores 8.3/10 with rising volume, so the market may be pricing results ahead of analyst targets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Strong margins: 38%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 67% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,049,897 (0.019% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 8.9 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 4.1 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $85
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-10.5% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.9>=7.5+momentum=6.6>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-10.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of -0.70.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.9, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Technical at 4.3, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Return High Margin
Trip ifROE falls below 25% from the current 38%.
- P2Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next quarterly report.
- P3Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 8% YoY from the current 2.8% score level.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $165, more than 3% above the current price.