Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.83
CHE · Why this verdict
Why Chemed (CHE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.5 |
| ROA | 8.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 134% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 1.9 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,447,137 (0.042% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 55.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-1.57
Upside
-15.0%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.57 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Quality at 6.3, and Sentiment at 5.5; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Growth at 2.4, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.