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CGCCanopy Growth CorporationSell5.2·$0.96+1.23%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Canopy Growth screens cheap on a price-to-sales basis but carries a quality score well below the engine's floor, a confirmed technical downtrend after a roughly 58% drawdown, and a string of severe earnings misses accompanied by bearish insider selling, so any recovery case rests on early technical signs of stabilization rather than confirmed fundamentals.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Price To SalesStable
  • Quality Below FloorStable
  • Confirmed Downtrend Deep DrawdownStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $0.96: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 14.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Canopy Growth Corporation is a Canada-based cannabis company producing and selling adult-use and medical cannabis products under brands including Tweed, DOJA, and Spectrum Therapeutics, plus vaporizer devices through its Storz & Bickel subsidiary, with operations in Canada,... Read more

QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.75%
Stop $0.90Target $1.04(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$1.22+27.2%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $0.96: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 14.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and SEC filing concern. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Canopy Growth Corporation

About Canopy Growth Corporation

Canopy Growth produces and sells cannabis flower, pre-rolls, edibles, vapes, and extracts under brands including Tweed, DOJA, and Spectrum Therapeutics across Canada, Germany, Poland, and Australia, alongside Storz & Bickel vaporizer devices exported to more than 100 countries. The company holds a non-controlling equity stake in Canopy USA for indirect U.S. cannabis exposure pending Nasdaq/NYSE listing rule changes. In May 2026, Canopy's Audit Committee concluded its fiscal 2024 and 2025 financial statements should no longer be relied upon due to warrant-accounting errors.

Canopy earns revenue through direct-to-patient medical sales via its Spectrum Therapeutics and Abba Medix online platforms and its Apollo, Canada House, and Abba Medix clinic network, and through adult-use wholesale supply agreements with every Canadian province and territory's retail distribution system. Cultivation is concentrated in three Canadian facilities — a hybrid greenhouse in Kincardine, Ontario (EU-GMP certified for medical exports to Europe and Australia) and indoor facilities in Pointe Claire and Louiseville, Quebec — while vapes, edibles, and extracts are largely sourced through third-party manufacturers. The company completed its acquisition of MTL Cannabis in fiscal 2026 to add cultivation genetics and talent, and separately entered a new loan and guaranty agreement on January 8, 2026. Beyond the financial restatement, Canopy disclosed a $47.5 million impairment of Storz & Bickel goodwill in fiscal 2026 and remains subject to an ongoing regulatory investigation tied to its prior self-reported BioSteel accounting review.

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Canopy's most consequential near-term risk is not cannabis-market competition but its own accounting infrastructure: the company restated audited financial statements for fiscal 2024 and 2025, plus eight quarters of unaudited interim statements, after concluding its accounting for U.S.-dollar-denominated share-settled warrants contained non-cash technical errors, and management determined that internal control over financial reporting was not effective as of March 31, 2026. With putative shareholder class actions a disclosed possibility and a separate regulatory investigation still open following the company's self-reported BioSteel accounting review, Canopy's ability to raise capital or maintain its Nasdaq and TSX listings depends on successfully remediating these control weaknesses rather than on any single product launch or market expansion.

See also: Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

From Canopy Growth Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 7, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-8.0
Mkt Cap$430M
EV/EBITDA-11.9
Profit Mgn-92.4%
ROE-44.7%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta2.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C14.00bearish
IV81%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-15Item 4.02HIGH
    Canopy Growth's Audit Committee concluded on May 15, 2026 that its previously issued FY2024 and FY2025 audited financial statements, and unaudited quarterly statements from September 2023 through December 2025, should no longer be relied upon due to non-cash technical accounting errors involving share-settled warrants with U.S.-dollar exercise prices first issued in fiscal 2024.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -92.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.6
Moat
4.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
9.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
8.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)SEC critical: Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $0.91Resistance $1.09

Price Targets

$1
$1
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CGC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $0.96: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 14.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $0.90. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1.04 (+7.8% upside). Prior stop was $0.90. Stop-loss: $0.90.

What are the risks of investing in CGC?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is CGC overvalued or undervalued?

Canopy Growth Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CGC?

12 analysts cover CGC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $1.

What does Canopy Growth Corporation do?Canopy Growth Corporation is a Canada-based cannabis company producing and selling adult-use and medical cannabis...

Canopy Growth Corporation is a Canada-based cannabis company producing and selling adult-use and medical cannabis products under brands including Tweed, DOJA, and Spectrum Therapeutics, plus vaporizer devices through its Storz & Bickel subsidiary, with operations in Canada, Europe, and Australia and a non-controlling equity stake in Canopy USA for indirect U.S. exposure. In May 2026, the company's Audit Committee determined its fiscal 2024 and 2025 financial statements should no longer be relied upon due to accounting errors in U.S.-dollar warrants, triggering a restatement, a disclosed materi

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