Carlyle Secured Lending screens cheap and is rated an industry growth leader, but the stock sits in a confirmed technical downtrend, has missed earnings in two of its last three reported quarters before a recent beat, and now carries both a reached price target and a negative news-driven downgrade, so the setup needs the recovery signals to firm up before the valuation case can play out.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Growth Leader→Stable
- Confirmed Downtrend Early Recovery→Stable
- Recent Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $10.39, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a specialty finance business development company that originates secured first- and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with roughly $25.0 million or greater of EBITDA, externally managed by an adviser affiliated with Carlyle's $211... Read more
Sell if holding. At $10.39, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $10.39, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Prior stop was $9.84. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.75 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $9.84. Stop-loss: $9.84.
Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover CGBD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $12.
What does Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. do?Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a specialty finance business development company that originates secured first- and...
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. is a specialty finance business development company that originates secured first- and second-lien loans to U.S. middle-market companies with roughly $25.0 million or greater of EBITDA, externally managed by an adviser affiliated with Carlyle's $211 billion Global Credit platform. The company completed its merger with Carlyle Secured Lending III in March 2025 and, as of December 31, 2025, had $1,543.7 million of outstanding indebtedness, co-investing alongside partners through joint ventures including Credit Fund, Credit Fund II, and the newly formed Structured Cr