Value
7.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Attractively valued
CERS · Why this verdict
Why Cerus (CERS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cerus posts near-zero returns on equity and assets with a thin gross-margin component, reflected in the quality score falling to 3.1, below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Quality score should climb back above 4.0 as margins and returns on capital normalize. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF has turned positive with a 1% FCF margin, suggesting the profitability trough may already be past. | ||
Revenue growth of 24% YoY signals continued top-line acceleration for Cerus despite the company's persistent unprofitability. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay near or above the current 24% YoY pace over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is low at 0.33, and a slowdown could quickly erase the bull case built on top-line momentum. | ||
The stock is technically overbought with an RSI of 74 while trading above its 200-day moving average, indicating stretched short-term momentum. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool from overbought territory without a sharp reversal in the underlying uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought conditions frequently precede short-term pullbacks that could erase recent gains. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers, with a bearish signal and $153,182 in sales over the past 90 days. Insider transaction read | Insider signal should shift toward neutral or bullish as confidence in the business improves. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling amount is only 0.024% of market cap, a size the company's own data frames as modest. | ||
Analysts see meaningful upside, with a target price implying 48% appreciation from current levels. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst price targets should stay supportive of upside as estimates continue rising (+5.6%). | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage carries only 0.33 confidence in the value score, reflecting sparse or unreliable estimates. | ||
Cerus posts near-zero returns on equity and assets with a thin gross-margin component, reflected in the quality score falling to 3.1, below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb back above 4.0 as margins and returns on capital normalize.
CounterFCF has turned positive with a 1% FCF margin, suggesting the profitability trough may already be past.
Revenue growth of 24% YoY signals continued top-line acceleration for Cerus despite the company's persistent unprofitability.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay near or above the current 24% YoY pace over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth confidence is low at 0.33, and a slowdown could quickly erase the bull case built on top-line momentum.
The stock is technically overbought with an RSI of 74 while trading above its 200-day moving average, indicating stretched short-term momentum.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool from overbought territory without a sharp reversal in the underlying uptrend.
CounterOverbought conditions frequently precede short-term pullbacks that could erase recent gains.
Insiders have been net sellers, with a bearish signal and $153,182 in sales over the past 90 days.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift toward neutral or bullish as confidence in the business improves.
CounterThe selling amount is only 0.024% of market cap, a size the company's own data frames as modest.
Analysts see meaningful upside, with a target price implying 48% appreciation from current levels.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should stay supportive of upside as estimates continue rising (+5.6%).
CounterAnalyst coverage carries only 0.33 confidence in the value score, reflecting sparse or unreliable estimates.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cerus shows quality below the engine's floor despite 24% revenue growth and overbought momentum, with recent insider selling and analysts still modeling meaningful upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 3.2 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 1%, FCF yield 0.4%)
Growth
8.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 7.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+5.6%)
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $153,182 (0.024% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 2.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 4.1 |
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Above max pain $0
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 8.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
- ▸Estimates up 5.6% (30d)
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.40
Upside
+20.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.77>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.5, Value at 7.8, and Momentum at 7.6; the weakest are Quality at 3.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, and Technical at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Core Profitability
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters while gross margin compresses below 5%.
- P2Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Overbought Technical Setup
Trip ifRSI falls below 30, signaling the uptrend has reversed into a confirmed downtrend.
- P4Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap within a single quarter.
- P5Analyst Upside Support
Trip ifShare price rises above the $3.97 take-profit target without a corresponding increase in the consensus price target.