Value
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸P/OCF: 25.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
CBRE · Why this verdict
Why CBRE Group (CBRE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBRE has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 16% above estimates and offers 15.8% potential return to the analyst-derived price target with a 2.7-to-1 favorable risk/reward — but business quality falls below the minimum acceptable threshold, the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross structure, and elevated put-to-call options positioning suggests the fundamental recovery has not yet translated into price-trend recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality falls below the minimum 4.0 floor, with near-bottom component scores on both operating and net margin dimensions and the quality assessment flagging the absence of a competitive moat. The underlying profitability structure does not meet a basic threshold of return-generating durability at current levels. Warnings | Business quality assessment rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive periods, reflecting genuine improvement in margin and moat metrics. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReal estate services businesses structurally operate on thin reported margins; profitability should be assessed on return on equity and earnings growth rather than margin percentages alone, and the company's return on equity compares favorably to peers on a relative basis. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed price downtrend — the 200-day moving average slope is declining at 2.0% per month and a death cross has triggered a hard technical block. Short-term indicators such as an improving MACD and RSI near 58 hint at early stabilization, but the longer-term technical structure remains deteriorating. Engine gate (failed) | The death cross resolves into a golden cross and the 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn improving MACD and RSI near 58 alongside a death cross is a classic early-recovery technical pattern; the long-term structural block may prove overly conservative if fundamentals continue to improve while the price action carves a bottom. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%. The most recent quarter delivered $1.61 actual against a $1.13 estimate — a 42% positive surprise — indicating the business is recovering faster than analysts have modeled. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average quarterly surprise above 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLarge positive surprises of 42% often reflect a period when analyst estimates have been anchored too low; as models reset higher following the beat streak, the bar rises and the probability of sustaining the streak at similar magnitudes decreases. | ||
The canonical price target geometry shows 15.8% potential return to the near-term resistance level with a 2.7-to-1 favorable risk/reward — a materially attractive setup if the quality and trend headwinds resolve. Analyst consensus is constructive with approximately 33% upside in their underlying models. Price targets | Price advances to within 5% of the $155.37 target within 12 months as the technical downtrend reversal completes. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets are grounded in fundamental models and may not reflect the confirmed technical downtrend; targets can remain elevated for quarters while a stock in a deteriorating trend continues to drift lower, making the gap between analyst target and price an unreliable timing signal. | ||
The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 1.77 and implied volatility at 68%, indicating above-average bearish conviction among options market participants. This positioning suggests institutional hedgers or directional traders anticipate continued near-term weakness. Risk breakdown | Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility retreats below 40% as price action stabilizes and bearish hedges are unwound. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can reflect long holders hedging downside rather than speculative short bets; if the hedges expire worthless on continued fundamental delivery, the unwind would itself create a demand catalyst for the stock. | ||
Business quality falls below the minimum 4.0 floor, with near-bottom component scores on both operating and net margin dimensions and the quality assessment flagging the absence of a competitive moat. The underlying profitability structure does not meet a basic threshold of return-generating durability at current levels.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Business quality assessment rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive periods, reflecting genuine improvement in margin and moat metrics.
CounterReal estate services businesses structurally operate on thin reported margins; profitability should be assessed on return on equity and earnings growth rather than margin percentages alone, and the company's return on equity compares favorably to peers on a relative basis.
The stock is in a confirmed price downtrend — the 200-day moving average slope is declining at 2.0% per month and a death cross has triggered a hard technical block. Short-term indicators such as an improving MACD and RSI near 58 hint at early stabilization, but the longer-term technical structure remains deteriorating.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death cross resolves into a golden cross and the 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within 6 months.
CounterAn improving MACD and RSI near 58 alongside a death cross is a classic early-recovery technical pattern; the long-term structural block may prove overly conservative if fundamentals continue to improve while the price action carves a bottom.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%. The most recent quarter delivered $1.61 actual against a $1.13 estimate — a 42% positive surprise — indicating the business is recovering faster than analysts have modeled.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average quarterly surprise above 10%.
CounterLarge positive surprises of 42% often reflect a period when analyst estimates have been anchored too low; as models reset higher following the beat streak, the bar rises and the probability of sustaining the streak at similar magnitudes decreases.
The canonical price target geometry shows 15.8% potential return to the near-term resistance level with a 2.7-to-1 favorable risk/reward — a materially attractive setup if the quality and trend headwinds resolve. Analyst consensus is constructive with approximately 33% upside in their underlying models.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances to within 5% of the $155.37 target within 12 months as the technical downtrend reversal completes.
CounterAnalyst price targets are grounded in fundamental models and may not reflect the confirmed technical downtrend; targets can remain elevated for quarters while a stock in a deteriorating trend continues to drift lower, making the gap between analyst target and price an unreliable timing signal.
The options market shows a put-to-call ratio of 1.77 and implied volatility at 68%, indicating above-average bearish conviction among options market participants. This positioning suggests institutional hedgers or directional traders anticipate continued near-term weakness.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 and implied volatility retreats below 40% as price action stabilizes and bearish hedges are unwound.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios can reflect long holders hedging downside rather than speculative short bets; if the hedges expire worthless on continued fundamental delivery, the unwind would itself create a demand catalyst for the stock.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $367,463 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 8.5 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $95
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:104d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.04
Upside
+21.6%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.7<4.5 outcome against Catalyst at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 3.04.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.3, Sentiment at 7.1, and Technical at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Quality at 3.7, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Minimum Threshold
Trip ifBusiness quality score rises above 5.0 out of 10 for 2 consecutive assessment periods.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope turns flat (0% or positive per month) and price closes above the 200-day MA for 5 consecutive sessions.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in any 1 of the next 2 earnings reports.
- P4Material Analyst Backed Upside
Trip ifStock declines more than 15% from current levels, closing below $114 for 3 consecutive sessions.
- P5Elevated Put Call Options Positioning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.0 for 3 consecutive weekly measurements.