Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.87
CBOE · Why this verdict
Why Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cboe is a wide-moat business with 26% ROE, 27% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 50% FCF/NI, so cash generation trails reported profit. | ||
Growth is strong at 23% YoY, and the company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with a 5.2% average surprise. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprise stays positive and revenue growth stays above 10% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterVolatility-driven trading volume is cyclical, so growth can reverse when market volatility fades. | ||
At $340.42 the stock is 13.2% above the $295.62 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 22.4x, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets toward the current price as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality and growth ranking among peers may justify a premium multiple, and targets may lag. | ||
Options and futures segments make up 68.0% of the business, tying results to derivatives trading activity. Bear case | Segment mix stays stable while volumes hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDerivatives volume is concentrated in a few products and tends to fall in calm markets. | ||
Cboe is a wide-moat business with 26% ROE, 27% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or higher over 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality warning shows only 50% FCF/NI, so cash generation trails reported profit.
Growth is strong at 23% YoY, and the company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with a 5.2% average surprise.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive and revenue growth stays above 10% over 12 months.
CounterVolatility-driven trading volume is cyclical, so growth can reverse when market volatility fades.
At $340.42 the stock is 13.2% above the $295.62 analyst target, with a forward P/E of 22.4x, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the current price as earnings grow.
CounterQuality and growth ranking among peers may justify a premium multiple, and targets may lag.
Options and futures segments make up 68.0% of the business, tying results to derivatives trading activity.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Segment mix stays stable while volumes hold.
CounterDerivatives volume is concentrated in a few products and tends to fall in calm markets.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.8 |
| ROA | 7.7 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 50% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $261,376 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $205
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.46
Upside
-6.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 9.1 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Quality at 8.0, and Peer rank at 6.7; the weakest are Value at 4.5, Technical at 4.8, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.46 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Quality
Trip ifROE falls below 15% from the current 26%.
- P2Strong Growth Beat Streak
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 23%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $370, more than 8% above the current price.
- P4Options Futures Concentration
Trip ifOptions and futures segments exceed 75% of the business from the current 68.0%.