Value
3.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
CBLL · Why this verdict
Why CeriBell (CBLL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ceribell is a fast-growing medical device company (32% YoY growth, 4-quarter beat streak) with a strong moat, but it burns cash, quality scores 3.2/10 and the price is 8.4% above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing about 32% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $21.2M to $28.1M over five quarters. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSales are 100% in the United States from a single product system, so growth can stall once hospital adoption saturates. | ||
Free cash flow is -32% of revenue, and the Rule of 40 reading is 0 (fail), so growth is being bought with cash. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin improves from -32% toward breakeven over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDebt-to-equity scores 9.3/10 and a strong balance sheet can fund losses while scale builds. | ||
At $27.13 the stock is 8.4% above the $24.86 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets to or above the current price as results beat estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4-of-4 beat streak with an average 9.7% surprise suggests targets are lagging results. | ||
The business depends on one product, the Ceribell System, and United States sales are 100.0% of the total. Bear case | Product and geographic mix stay stable while growth continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single-product device maker faces risks from competing devices or reimbursement changes, with no second revenue line to offset. | ||
Revenue is growing about 32% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $21.2M to $28.1M over five quarters.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterSales are 100% in the United States from a single product system, so growth can stall once hospital adoption saturates.
Free cash flow is -32% of revenue, and the Rule of 40 reading is 0 (fail), so growth is being bought with cash.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin improves from -32% toward breakeven over 12 months.
CounterDebt-to-equity scores 9.3/10 and a strong balance sheet can fund losses while scale builds.
At $27.13 the stock is 8.4% above the $24.86 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets to or above the current price as results beat estimates.
CounterA 4-of-4 beat streak with an average 9.7% surprise suggests targets are lagging results.
The business depends on one product, the Ceribell System, and United States sales are 100.0% of the total.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Product and geographic mix stay stable while growth continues.
CounterA single-product device maker faces risks from competing devices or reimbursement changes, with no second revenue line to offset.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -32% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 0 (fail)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,027,492 (0.481% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.2 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.48%=HEAVY
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.58
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.58.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.8, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 3.2, Value at 3.7, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 32%.
- P2Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow margin rises above 0% of revenue from the current -32%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $30, more than 10% above the current price.
- P4Single Product Us Concentration
Trip ifUnited States share of sales falls below 90% from the current 100.0%.