Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.84
CB · Why this verdict
Why Chubb (CB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chubb has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters at an average of nearly 10% above expectations, backed by 19% net margins and strong free cash flow quality — however, the stock has moved above its near-term resistance target, leaving the risk/reward unfavorable for initiating or adding to positions at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with positive surprise magnitudes ranging from roughly 3% to nearly 22%. This consistent over-delivery demonstrates a disciplined franchise that has stayed ahead of analyst models across varying underwriting environments. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with an average quarterly positive surprise above 5%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFour consecutive beats have likely pulled consensus estimates meaningfully higher; the most recent quarter's 3.2% beat is the narrowest in the streak, suggesting the gap between delivery and expectation may be narrowing as models catch up. | ||
The business generates a 19% net margin with a free cash flow quality score well above average and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, confirming that both the balance sheet and income statement are moving in the right direction simultaneously. Quality breakdown | Net margin sustains above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters and free cash flow quality remains at elevated levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsurance underwriting margins are inherently sensitive to catastrophe frequency; a severe loss quarter could compress margins meaningfully within a single reporting period even in a well-managed franchise. | ||
The stock has moved above its near-term technical resistance target at $326.33, with the current price of $326.95 leaving negative reward relative to that level. The risk/reward from current prices is unfavorable, making this a hold-in-place rather than an opportunity to add. Price targets | Earnings growth or analyst target upgrades establish a new resistance level at least 10% above the current price, creating a fresh constructive entry zone. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality compounders can trade above short-term technical resistance for extended periods when fundamental momentum is intact; further earnings beats could prompt analysts to raise price targets, retroactively justifying the current level. | ||
Price action shows a golden cross, the stock is positioned above its 200-day moving average, and on-balance volume is rising — all consistent with continued buyer interest. With RSI at 53, the stock retains room to run without yet approaching overbought territory. Engine gate (passed) | The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months with RSI holding above 45. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume is light relative to the move, suggesting the uptrend lacks broad participation; low-volume rallies above resistance can be vulnerable to reversal when a broader market correction arrives. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with positive surprise magnitudes ranging from roughly 3% to nearly 22%. This consistent over-delivery demonstrates a disciplined franchise that has stayed ahead of analyst models across varying underwriting environments.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters with an average quarterly positive surprise above 5%.
CounterFour consecutive beats have likely pulled consensus estimates meaningfully higher; the most recent quarter's 3.2% beat is the narrowest in the streak, suggesting the gap between delivery and expectation may be narrowing as models catch up.
The business generates a 19% net margin with a free cash flow quality score well above average and a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, confirming that both the balance sheet and income statement are moving in the right direction simultaneously.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin sustains above 15% for 4 consecutive quarters and free cash flow quality remains at elevated levels.
CounterInsurance underwriting margins are inherently sensitive to catastrophe frequency; a severe loss quarter could compress margins meaningfully within a single reporting period even in a well-managed franchise.
The stock has moved above its near-term technical resistance target at $326.33, with the current price of $326.95 leaving negative reward relative to that level. The risk/reward from current prices is unfavorable, making this a hold-in-place rather than an opportunity to add.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Earnings growth or analyst target upgrades establish a new resistance level at least 10% above the current price, creating a fresh constructive entry zone.
CounterHigh-quality compounders can trade above short-term technical resistance for extended periods when fundamental momentum is intact; further earnings beats could prompt analysts to raise price targets, retroactively justifying the current level.
Price action shows a golden cross, the stock is positioned above its 200-day moving average, and on-balance volume is rising — all consistent with continued buyer interest. With RSI at 53, the stock retains room to run without yet approaching overbought territory.
↓DeterioratingEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 3 consecutive months with RSI holding above 45.
CounterVolume is light relative to the move, suggesting the uptrend lacks broad participation; low-volume rallies above resistance can be vulnerable to reversal when a broader market correction arrives.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 9.4 |
| Net margin | 9.1 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
Growth
3.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 1.9 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $8,836,811 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 8.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $210
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.20
Upside
-8.3%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7; weakest: Growth at 3.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.7, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 3.0, Peer rank at 4.5, and Technical at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in any 1 of the next 2 earnings reports.
- P2Strong Margins And Cash Generation
Trip ifNet margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Stock Above Resistance Target
Trip ifStock rallies more than 15% above current price, establishing a new resistance zone above $376.
- P4Bullish Technical Price Trend
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive trading sessions.