Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
CAL · Why this verdict
Why Caleres (CAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Caleres already trades essentially at its analyst target and carries quality metrics below the engine's floor, with a red-flag cash-flow read and a bearish insider signal offsetting cheap headline valuation and improving momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached its analyst target, trading about 0.3% above it per the engine's v9 upside read of -0.3%, leaving little room for further multiple expansion. Bear case | Upside_pct should turn positive again if the stock pulls back or the analyst target is raised, restoring room to the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith a $0.5B market cap outside institutional reach, price often overshoots or undershoots analyst targets by wide margins, so being at the target now says little about the next 12 months. | ||
Business quality scores 2.6, below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, driven by a red-flag earnings-quality metric of -487% FCF/NI despite a strong Piotroski score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should turn positive and stabilize, lifting the quality score back above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA deeply negative FCF/NI ratio can reflect structural working-capital or margin problems that persist well beyond a single reporting cycle. | ||
Shares are technically overbought with an RSI of 73 even as the 200-day moving-average slope has gone flat, raising the risk of a momentum fade. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range while the stock holds its position above the 200-day moving average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume shows real accumulation, so the overbought reading could resolve through continued upside rather than a pullback. | ||
The engine flags a yield trap -- the dividend appears high but unsafe -- alongside two earnings misses in the last four quarters. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings should return to a beat streak and the yield-trap flag should clear as dividend safety improves. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo of the last four quarters already missed estimates, and a yield-trap flag often precedes an actual dividend cut rather than a false alarm. | ||
Insider signal reads bearish with net insider selling of roughly 11,207 shares, while the options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 and 70% implied volatility. Insider | Insider signal should flip to neutral or bullish, and the put/call ratio should compress below 1.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe insider sale here is a small share-count move with no dollar value reported, so it may not be a meaningful signal despite the bearish label. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst target, trading about 0.3% above it per the engine's v9 upside read of -0.3%, leaving little room for further multiple expansion.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Upside_pct should turn positive again if the stock pulls back or the analyst target is raised, restoring room to the target.
CounterWith a $0.5B market cap outside institutional reach, price often overshoots or undershoots analyst targets by wide margins, so being at the target now says little about the next 12 months.
Business quality scores 2.6, below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, driven by a red-flag earnings-quality metric of -487% FCF/NI despite a strong Piotroski score of 7 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should turn positive and stabilize, lifting the quality score back above 4.0.
CounterA deeply negative FCF/NI ratio can reflect structural working-capital or margin problems that persist well beyond a single reporting cycle.
Shares are technically overbought with an RSI of 73 even as the 200-day moving-average slope has gone flat, raising the risk of a momentum fade.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range while the stock holds its position above the 200-day moving average.
CounterRising on-balance volume shows real accumulation, so the overbought reading could resolve through continued upside rather than a pullback.
The engine flags a yield trap -- the dividend appears high but unsafe -- alongside two earnings misses in the last four quarters.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should return to a beat streak and the yield-trap flag should clear as dividend safety improves.
CounterTwo of the last four quarters already missed estimates, and a yield-trap flag often precedes an actual dividend cut rather than a false alarm.
Insider signal reads bearish with net insider selling of roughly 11,207 shares, while the options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 1.78 and 70% implied volatility.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should flip to neutral or bullish, and the put/call ratio should compress below 1.0.
CounterThe insider sale here is a small share-count move with no dollar value reported, so it may not be a meaningful signal despite the bearish label.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -487% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $168,105 (0.036% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 1.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.90
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.08
Upside
+12.1%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 1.08.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Growth at 7.3, and Insider at 6.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Quality at 2.6, and Momentum at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Price Already Reached
Trip ifUpside_pct rises above 15% from the current -0.3%, meaning shares fall well below the analyst target again.
- P2Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.6, clearing the engine's minimum floor.
- P3Overbought Momentum Fade Risk
Trip ifShares rise more than 10% over the next quarter while RSI stays above 70, showing no overbought pullback materializes.
- P4Yield Trap And Earnings Concerns
Trip ifThe company beats consensus EPS in 2 consecutive quarters, and dividend safety score rises above 8.0 from the current 6.0.
- P5Insider Selling And Elevated Options Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.78, and implied volatility compresses below 40% from 70%.