Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CAC · Why this verdict
Why Camden National (CAC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Camden National has strong growth (20% YoY), a perfect 4-quarter beat streak and a cheap forward P/E of 10.1x, but price is 10.4% above the analyst target and the loan book is concentrated in Maine and commercial lending.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business is concentrated geographically in Maine, with 52.0% of loans in commercial real estate and commercial lending. Bear case | Credit quality stays stable in Maine commercial lending over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single-state regional bank with half its book in commercial lending is exposed to one local economy and property cycle. | ||
Growth is strong at 20% YoY with earnings growth scoring 10/10, supporting a growth-bank profile. Growth breakdown | Growth stays above 10% YoY over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 20% growth rate at a regional bank may reflect one-off items or acquisitions that do not repeat. | ||
The bank beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, with an average surprise of 3.3%. Catalyst breakdown | EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall average surprises of 3.3% leave little cushion, and earnings arrive in 3 days as a binary event. | ||
At $57.84 the stock is 10.4% above the $51.85 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets toward the current price as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBreakout price action with 10/10 earnings growth suggests the market is moving ahead of stale analyst targets. | ||
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.05, which is cheap relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple stays below 12x as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low multiple may reflect market worries about commercial real estate credit that earnings growth does not yet show. | ||
The business is concentrated geographically in Maine, with 52.0% of loans in commercial real estate and commercial lending.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality stays stable in Maine commercial lending over 12 months.
CounterA single-state regional bank with half its book in commercial lending is exposed to one local economy and property cycle.
Growth is strong at 20% YoY with earnings growth scoring 10/10, supporting a growth-bank profile.
Tripped↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth stays above 10% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterA 20% growth rate at a regional bank may reflect one-off items or acquisitions that do not repeat.
The bank beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, with an average surprise of 3.3%.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the next 4 quarters.
CounterSmall average surprises of 3.3% leave little cushion, and earnings arrive in 3 days as a binary event.
At $57.84 the stock is 10.4% above the $51.85 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the current price as earnings grow.
CounterBreakout price action with 10/10 earnings growth suggests the market is moving ahead of stale analyst targets.
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.05, which is cheap relative to its growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple stays below 12x as earnings grow.
CounterA low multiple may reflect market worries about commercial real estate credit that earnings growth does not yet show.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 1.4 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.42
Upside
-10.1%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Catalyst at 6.0, and Insider at 5.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Growth at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings GrowthTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% YoY from the current 20%.
- P2Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next quarterly report.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $65, more than 12% above the current price.
- P4Geographic Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate and commercial loans exceed 60% of the loan portfolio from the current 52.0%.
- P5Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from the current 10.1x.