Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CAC · Why this verdict
Why Camden National (CAC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank has beaten earnings in three of its last four quarters and trades at an attractive forward P/E of 9.4x with a PEG ratio of just 0.05, alongside 26% year-over-year growth. Bull case | The valuation multiple should re-rate higher and the beat streak should continue at the 2026-07-28 report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high and has reached its prior price target, suggesting much of this good news may already be reflected in the price. | ||
A positive news-sentiment modifier of +2 upgraded the engine's recommendation from hold-if-holding to strong-buy-wait, reflecting notably positive recent news sentiment of +1.00. Warnings | News sentiment should remain positive and support a continued re-rating over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-article sentiment sample driving a full recommendation upgrade is a thin evidentiary basis that could reverse quickly with one negative headline. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, leaving modeled upside at -17.1% against a 15% downside to stop-loss, an unfavorable risk/reward. Warnings | A revised, higher price target or a valuation pullback should restore a positive risk/reward over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued earnings beats and 26% growth could justify successive target increases, meaning a target being reached may simply be lagging fundamentals rather than a hard ceiling. | ||
The engine applies a quality discount of -30% to the position size despite an otherwise starter-sized buy recommendation, reflecting some reservation about the bank's underlying quality. Position-sizing math | The quality discount should narrow toward 0% as quality metrics improve over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA -30% quality discount already reduces position risk substantially, so the position sizing itself partially compensates for the quality concern rather than signaling it should be avoided. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings in three of its last four quarters and trades at an attractive forward P/E of 9.4x with a PEG ratio of just 0.05, alongside 26% year-over-year growth.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The valuation multiple should re-rate higher and the beat streak should continue at the 2026-07-28 report.
CounterThe stock is already near its 52-week high and has reached its prior price target, suggesting much of this good news may already be reflected in the price.
A positive news-sentiment modifier of +2 upgraded the engine's recommendation from hold-if-holding to strong-buy-wait, reflecting notably positive recent news sentiment of +1.00.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- News sentiment should remain positive and support a continued re-rating over the next 12 months.
CounterA single-article sentiment sample driving a full recommendation upgrade is a thin evidentiary basis that could reverse quickly with one negative headline.
The stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, leaving modeled upside at -17.1% against a 15% downside to stop-loss, an unfavorable risk/reward.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A revised, higher price target or a valuation pullback should restore a positive risk/reward over the next 12 months.
CounterContinued earnings beats and 26% growth could justify successive target increases, meaning a target being reached may simply be lagging fundamentals rather than a hard ceiling.
The engine applies a quality discount of -30% to the position size despite an otherwise starter-sized buy recommendation, reflecting some reservation about the bank's underlying quality.
→StablePosition-sizing math
- Expectation
- The quality discount should narrow toward 0% as quality metrics improve over the next several quarters.
CounterA -30% quality discount already reduces position risk substantially, so the position sizing itself partially compensates for the quality concern rather than signaling it should be avoided.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CAC's earnings beat streak and positive news-driven upgrade are offset by a failed asymmetry gate after reaching its price target and a meaningful quality discount applied to position sizing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 3.1 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 67%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.07
Upside
-14.4%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.5; weakest: Momentum at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.5, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Catalyst at 4.7, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Cheap Valuation
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Positive News Sentiment Upgrade
Trip ifNews sentiment score falls below 0.0 for 2 consecutive months.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifModeled upside stays below -10% for more than 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Quality Discount Position Sizing
Trip ifThe quality discount deepens to more than 50%, from the current 30%, in the next reported quarter.