Value
4.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 5.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.53
BX · Why this verdict
Why Blackstone (BX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blackstone is a high-quality asset manager with a wide economic moat, strong margins, and a four-quarter earnings beat streak, but a confirmed price downtrend and reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.51-to-1 limit the near-term case for adding exposure at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The firm operates with a wide economic moat, delivering margins of 21% and a return on equity of 30% — a combination that supports durable above-average returns and reduces the risk of structural earnings deterioration across cycles. Quality | Operating margins remain above 18% and return on equity stays above 25% for four consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue and earnings growth rank in the bottom third of scores, suggesting the high-quality franchise is not currently translating into meaningful top-line expansion, which may eventually pressure fee revenues if market activity softens. | ||
The company has exceeded analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging a positive surprise of approximately 12%, reflecting a pattern of consistent guidance discipline that reduces the probability of a negative earnings shock. Earnings | Earnings per share continues to beat consensus in at least three of the next four quarterly reports. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter's positive surprise narrowed to approximately 1.7% — the smallest in the four-quarter streak — suggesting the cushion above street estimates may be compressing toward a level where a miss becomes meaningfully more probable. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average while that average itself is declining at roughly 4.8% per month, a confirmed downtrend that has historically extended before reversing and that currently suppresses near-term price momentum. Momentum | The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the stock reclaims that average within 12 months, confirming a technical trend reversal. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI stands near 59 with volume accumulating on rising on-balance volume — internal momentum indicators that can signal recovery ahead of the lagging moving average, implying the downtrend may resolve faster than the slope alone suggests. | ||
With approximately 3.6% room to the analyst price target against a stated potential downside of roughly 14%, the reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.51-to-1 does not offer sufficient asymmetry to justify initiating new exposure at current prices. Warnings | The reward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5-to-1, either through a meaningful price pullback or a material upward revision to the analyst consensus target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe wide economic moat and demonstrated earnings consistency could attract buyers at current levels and limit downside meaningfully, making the asymmetry concern less relevant for longer-horizon holders who are less sensitive to near-term entry price. | ||
The firm operates with a wide economic moat, delivering margins of 21% and a return on equity of 30% — a combination that supports durable above-average returns and reduces the risk of structural earnings deterioration across cycles.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 18% and return on equity stays above 25% for four consecutive quarters.
CounterRevenue and earnings growth rank in the bottom third of scores, suggesting the high-quality franchise is not currently translating into meaningful top-line expansion, which may eventually pressure fee revenues if market activity softens.
The company has exceeded analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging a positive surprise of approximately 12%, reflecting a pattern of consistent guidance discipline that reduces the probability of a negative earnings shock.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share continues to beat consensus in at least three of the next four quarterly reports.
CounterThe most recent quarter's positive surprise narrowed to approximately 1.7% — the smallest in the four-quarter streak — suggesting the cushion above street estimates may be compressing toward a level where a miss becomes meaningfully more probable.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average while that average itself is declining at roughly 4.8% per month, a confirmed downtrend that has historically extended before reversing and that currently suppresses near-term price momentum.
↑ImprovingMomentum
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns positive and the stock reclaims that average within 12 months, confirming a technical trend reversal.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI stands near 59 with volume accumulating on rising on-balance volume — internal momentum indicators that can signal recovery ahead of the lagging moving average, implying the downtrend may resolve faster than the slope alone suggests.
With approximately 3.6% room to the analyst price target against a stated potential downside of roughly 14%, the reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.51-to-1 does not offer sufficient asymmetry to justify initiating new exposure at current prices.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk ratio improves above 1.5-to-1, either through a meaningful price pullback or a material upward revision to the analyst consensus target.
CounterThe wide economic moat and demonstrated earnings consistency could attract buyers at current levels and limit downside meaningfully, making the asymmetry concern less relevant for longer-horizon holders who are less sensitive to near-term entry price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.8 |
| ROA | 8.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.49 (n=5)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $3,721,572 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 4.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 4.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.6>=7.5+momentum=7.1>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.16
Upside
-2.1%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.58>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.6; weakest: Technical at 1.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.6, Insider at 7.3, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.7, Growth at 3.3, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Franchise Quality Moat
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Downtrend Headwind
Trip ifPrice breaks above $129 (the analyst target) and continues rising for 2 consecutive months, demonstrating the downtrend did not constrain upside as the pillar implies.
- P4Thin Reward Risk Profile
Trip ifPrice appreciates more than 14% from current levels within 12 months, matching the stated downside risk in the opposite direction and showing the entry offered symmetric opportunity.