Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.69
BUD · Why this verdict
Why Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor (BUD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BUD is a high-quality consumer defensive business that has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, but with the share price above the near-term resistance target and negative reward-to-risk geometry, the setup does not justify adding to a position today.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company ranks as a growth leader within its industry peer group, suggesting it is taking share or growing faster than competitors on a revenue basis. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth remains above the industry peer median for 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth leadership in a mature beverages category can reflect mix or pricing actions that are not sustainable; a consumer trade-down environment could quickly erode the relative advantage. | ||
The current share price is above the near-term resistance target, leaving approximately 0.8% headroom to the take-profit level and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.42-to-1, making new capital deployment unattractive here. Price targets | If this concern resolves, the share price pulls back at least 5% from current levels, restoring a favorable entry geometry with reward-to-risk above 1.5-to-1. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh-quality businesses with strong momentum can sustain prices above technical resistance for extended periods; dismissing the name on a modest overextension risks missing a continued re-rating. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 5.5%, reflecting consistent operational execution above expectations. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 3%, confirming durable guidance discipline rather than a one-cycle effect. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFour quarters of modest beats — ranging from 3.5% to 8.4% — may reflect a low-expectations base rather than accelerating operational improvement; if consensus catches up, future beats will be harder to deliver. | ||
The business scores a perfect 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, indicating strength across all profitability, leverage, and liquidity dimensions, consistent with a high-quality franchise. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 4 reporting periods, and operating margin holds steady or improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical balance-sheet health but does not guarantee future profitability in a slowing consumer environment; the forward P/E of 16.6x and PEG of 1.90 leave limited cushion if growth disappoints. | ||
The company ranks as a growth leader within its industry peer group, suggesting it is taking share or growing faster than competitors on a revenue basis.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above the industry peer median for 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterGrowth leadership in a mature beverages category can reflect mix or pricing actions that are not sustainable; a consumer trade-down environment could quickly erode the relative advantage.
The current share price is above the near-term resistance target, leaving approximately 0.8% headroom to the take-profit level and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.42-to-1, making new capital deployment unattractive here.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- If this concern resolves, the share price pulls back at least 5% from current levels, restoring a favorable entry geometry with reward-to-risk above 1.5-to-1.
CounterHigh-quality businesses with strong momentum can sustain prices above technical resistance for extended periods; dismissing the name on a modest overextension risks missing a continued re-rating.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the most recent quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 5.5%, reflecting consistent operational execution above expectations.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 3%, confirming durable guidance discipline rather than a one-cycle effect.
CounterFour quarters of modest beats — ranging from 3.5% to 8.4% — may reflect a low-expectations base rather than accelerating operational improvement; if consensus catches up, future beats will be harder to deliver.
The business scores a perfect 9 out of 9 on the Piotroski F-Score, indicating strength across all profitability, leverage, and liquidity dimensions, consistent with a high-quality franchise.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or above over the next 4 reporting periods, and operating margin holds steady or improves.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical balance-sheet health but does not guarantee future profitability in a slowing consumer environment; the forward P/E of 16.6x and PEG of 1.90 leave limited cushion if growth disappoints.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 7.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+2.3%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 7.6 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Catalyst at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Peer rank at 5.2, and Technical at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat streak.
- P2High Quality Franchise Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P3Industry Growth Leader Peer Rank
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below the industry peer median for 3 of any 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Target No Upside
Trip ifShare price pulls back more than 5% from current levels, with upside to take-profit exceeding 8%.