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BRSLBrightstar Lottery PLC Trading Buy Wait5.5·$10.04-1.28%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Brightstar Lottery screens attractively on valuation with a forward multiple of 12.4 times and a PEG ratio of 0.25, but a confirmed technical downtrend, a recent earnings miss, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 23.4 signal that the valuation case cannot be acted on until momentum stabilizes.

Thesis pillars

  • Compelling Valuation Analyst UpsideStable
  • Strong Free Cash ConversionStable
  • Confirmed Price DowntrendImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading (BRSL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Gambling

Earnings in 3 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $9.89. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $10.04. Engine's entry $9.89 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.4), Negative free cash flow.

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority;... Read more

$10.04+39.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 8 Gambling
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield275.83%
IncomeYield8.89%(5y avg 4.51%)Payout282.85%at-risk
Entry $9.89(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $9.33Target $13.99(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 7.0:1
Analyst target$16.07+60.1%8 analysts
$13.99our TP
$10.04price
$16.07mean
$21

Wait for pullback to $9.89. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $10.04. Engine's entry $9.89 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.4), Negative free cash flow. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.4), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.1
P/E (Fwd)12.7
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA6.9
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth0.7%
Beta0.97
Dividend8.89%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$9-10.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.1
Volume
3.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
5.0
Value Rank
5.9
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R 7.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.90Resistance $11.30

Price Targets

$9
$10
$14
A.Upside+39.3%
A.R:R7.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BRSL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $9.89. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $10.04. Engine's entry $9.89 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.4), Negative free cash flow. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $13.99 (+39.3%), stop $9.33 (−7.6%), A.R:R 7.0:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BRSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.99 (+39.3% upside). Target $13.99 (+39.3%), stop $9.33 (−7.6%), A.R:R 7.0:1. Stop-loss: $9.33.

What are the risks of investing in BRSL?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.4), Negative free cash flow.

Is BRSL overvalued or undervalued?

Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading trades at a P/E of 35.1 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BRSL?

14 analysts cover BRSL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading do?Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The...

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant ticket games; and offers printing services, such as instant ticket marketing plans and graphic design, programming, packaging, shipping, and delivery services, as well as lottery management services; instant lottery systems; and iLottery, a platform that provides access to eInstant and draw games. It also processes commercial transactions, such as prepaid cellular telephone recharges, bill payments, e-vouchers and retail-based programs, electronic tax payments, prepaid card recharges, stamp duty, and money transfer services; sells additional machines and central computers to expand existing systems or replace existing equipment; and licenses related software. In addition, the company provides marketing services, such as retail optimization and lottery brand awareness campaigns; telephone support, software and hardware maintenance, software development, and other professional services; and ancillary maintenance and support services for systems, equipment, and software. The company was formerly known as International Game Technology PLC and changed its name to Brightstar Lottery PLC in July 2025. Brightstar Lottery PLC was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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