Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.7 |
| PEG | 3.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.3x
- ▸PEG: 3.27
BCPC · Why this verdict
Why Balchem (BCPC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Balchem is a high-quality compounder with a wide moat, a 9/9 Piotroski score and strong momentum, but at a forward P/E of 28.2x and within 0.5% of the analyst target it offers little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $177.00 is within 0.5% of the $177.86 analyst target, leaving almost no upside against 9% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are revised above $190 within 12 months as earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means targets can be revised up sharply after one strong quarter. | ||
Balchem is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong returns and growth, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and margins hold near 15% through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity scores only 4.3/10 and gross margin 3.3/10, so quality is concentrated in balance-sheet health rather than returns. | ||
Valuation is rich at a forward P/E of 28.2x and PEG of 3.26, ranking near the bottom among peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses toward 24x as earnings grow into the multiple. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPremium compounders often hold rich multiples for years, and a wide moat plus a Piotroski of 9/9 can justify a premium. | ||
Balchem has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters (one in line), with a small average surprise of 2.9%, most recently 2.28% in October 2026. Earnings | EPS stays at or above estimates in the report due in February 2027. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are only 2% to 5%, leaving little cushion if costs or demand weaken. | ||
Momentum is strong at 8.6/10 with rising on-balance volume and a 2.4x volume surge, but RSI of 83 is overbought. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI of 83 and a Bollinger score of 0 signal an overextended stock near its 52-week high, so a pullback is likely. | ||
The price of $177.00 is within 0.5% of the $177.86 analyst target, leaving almost no upside against 9% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised above $190 within 12 months as earnings grow.
CounterLight analyst coverage means targets can be revised up sharply after one strong quarter.
Balchem is a high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong returns and growth, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and margins hold near 15% through the next four quarters.
CounterReturn on equity scores only 4.3/10 and gross margin 3.3/10, so quality is concentrated in balance-sheet health rather than returns.
Valuation is rich at a forward P/E of 28.2x and PEG of 3.26, ranking near the bottom among peers.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses toward 24x as earnings grow into the multiple.
CounterPremium compounders often hold rich multiples for years, and a wide moat plus a Piotroski of 9/9 can justify a premium.
Balchem has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters (one in line), with a small average surprise of 2.9%, most recently 2.28% in October 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS stays at or above estimates in the report due in February 2027.
CounterBeats are only 2% to 5%, leaving little cushion if costs or demand weaken.
Momentum is strong at 8.6/10 with rising on-balance volume and a 2.4x volume surge, but RSI of 83 is overbought.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average and momentum stays above 5.5.
CounterRSI of 83 and a Bollinger score of 0 signal an overextended stock near its 52-week high, so a pullback is likely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 5.2 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.6 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.26
Upside
+6.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1; weakest: Momentum at 2.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, Technical at 7.5, and Quality at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Value at 4.4, and Growth at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.
- P2Rich Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 22x from the current 28.2x.
- P3Analyst Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $200 from the current $177.86.
- P4Steady Small Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Overbought Strong Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 8.6.