Value
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.42
BCH · Why this verdict
Why Banco De Chile (BCH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banco de Chile has best-in-class margins and strong peer-relative quality, but the price is 7.1% above the analyst target, earnings delivery has been inconsistent and dividend safety is poor, so risk outweighs reward at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 45% and quality ranks 9.6/10 among peers, with superior return on equity, despite no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Margins stay above 40% over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverall quality is only 4.0/10, and low growth and no moat leave margins exposed to rate cuts. | ||
The price of $38.33 is 7.1% above the $35.62 analyst target, with a negative reward-to-risk of -1.41. Upside pct | Analyst targets rise above the current price or the price reverts toward $35.62 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price in a rally, and a strong earnings print could force targets up. | ||
Earnings delivery is inconsistent: three misses and one beat in the last four quarters, though the latest July 2026 quarter beat by 23.6%. Earnings | EPS beats persist in the report due in 6 days and the following quarters, lifting the beat count. | →Stable |
| CounterThe July beat may be a one-off after three straight misses of 2% to 7%. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with dividend safety scoring only 2.0/10. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety score rises above 5/10 as payout is covered by earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings beat by 23.6% last quarter, which may show payout coverage is improving faster than the safety score suggests. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average but that average is still rising 1.4% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend, though falling on-balance volume shows distribution. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum recovers above 4.5/10. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is only 3.2/10 and falling volume suggests distribution that could turn the pullback into a downtrend. | ||
Margins are strong at 45% and quality ranks 9.6/10 among peers, with superior return on equity, despite no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins stay above 40% over the next four quarters.
CounterOverall quality is only 4.0/10, and low growth and no moat leave margins exposed to rate cuts.
The price of $38.33 is 7.1% above the $35.62 analyst target, with a negative reward-to-risk of -1.41.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above the current price or the price reverts toward $35.62 within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price in a rally, and a strong earnings print could force targets up.
Earnings delivery is inconsistent: three misses and one beat in the last four quarters, though the latest July 2026 quarter beat by 23.6%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats persist in the report due in 6 days and the following quarters, lifting the beat count.
CounterThe July beat may be a one-off after three straight misses of 2% to 7%.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with dividend safety scoring only 2.0/10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety score rises above 5/10 as payout is covered by earnings.
CounterEarnings beat by 23.6% last quarter, which may show payout coverage is improving faster than the safety score suggests.
The stock is below its 200-day average but that average is still rising 1.4% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend, though falling on-balance volume shows distribution.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and momentum recovers above 4.5/10.
CounterMomentum is only 3.2/10 and falling volume suggests distribution that could turn the pullback into a downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 1.6 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 5.0 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.54
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Value at 6.6, and Technical at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.2, Catalyst at 3.2, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.54 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Exceeded
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $42 from the current $35.62.
- P2Inconsistent Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Best In Class Margins
Trip ifMargins fall below 35% from the current 45%.
- P4Unsafe Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 5.0 from the current 2.0.
- P5Pullback In Rising Trend
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below 0% per 30 days from the current +1.4%.