Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
- ▸Attractively valued
BC · Why this verdict
Why Brunswick (BC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brunswick is cheaply valued (forward P/E 12.2x, PEG 0.72) with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and 22.9% upside to the analyst target, but quality scores 2.6/10 with no competitive moat and sole-source supplier exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is poor, scoring 2.6/10 with no competitive moat, which caps how much valuation upside can be trusted. Quality breakdown | Quality score improves above 4.0 as margins and returns recover over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer-relative quality ranks at the bottom (1.0 of 10) and operating margin and ROE components score near zero, so a recovery may not arrive in 12 months. | ||
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 24.7%, most recently 31% in July 2026. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive in the report due in 5 days and the following quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats came off low estimates (for example $0.45 expected in April), and cyclical recreational demand could reverse the streak. | ||
Brunswick looks attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x and a PEG of 0.72. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays at or below roughly 14x as earnings growth is delivered. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low multiple on a business with no moat and weak margins may be a value trap, and forward earnings estimates could be cut. | ||
The price of $65.88 sits 22.9% below the $80.94 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of 3.2 against a 7.1% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price closes a meaningful part of the gap to the $80.94 target within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets for cyclical consumer names often lag deteriorating demand, and the engine still recommends avoiding the position. | ||
Rising on-balance volume signals accumulation even though price is below its 200-day average in a confirmed downtrend, a recovery setup with momentum at 6.6/10. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and the momentum score holds above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross is in place and the 200-day average slope is -1.3% over 30 days, so the rebound may be a bounce inside a downtrend. | ||
Business quality is poor, scoring 2.6/10 with no competitive moat, which caps how much valuation upside can be trusted.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 4.0 as margins and returns recover over the next 12 months.
CounterPeer-relative quality ranks at the bottom (1.0 of 10) and operating margin and ROE components score near zero, so a recovery may not arrive in 12 months.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 24.7%, most recently 31% in July 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the report due in 5 days and the following quarters.
CounterBeats came off low estimates (for example $0.45 expected in April), and cyclical recreational demand could reverse the streak.
Brunswick looks attractively valued at a forward P/E of 12.2x and a PEG of 0.72.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays at or below roughly 14x as earnings growth is delivered.
CounterA low multiple on a business with no moat and weak margins may be a value trap, and forward earnings estimates could be cut.
The price of $65.88 sits 22.9% below the $80.94 analyst target, giving a reward-to-risk of 3.2 against a 7.1% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price closes a meaningful part of the gap to the $80.94 target within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets for cyclical consumer names often lag deteriorating demand, and the engine still recommends avoiding the position.
Rising on-balance volume signals accumulation even though price is below its 200-day average in a confirmed downtrend, a recovery setup with momentum at 6.6/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and the momentum score holds above 5.5.
CounterA death cross is in place and the 200-day average slope is -1.3% over 30 days, so the rebound may be a bounce inside a downtrend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 30%
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $16,161 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 1.5 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 4.3 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.77
- ▸Above max pain $55
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.49
Upside
+16.6%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.38>1.3, MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.1 and asymmetric R:R of 1.49.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Catalyst at 7.8, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Peer rank at 2.6, and Quality at 2.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 from the current 2.6 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from the current 12.2x.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $70 from the current $80.94.
- P5Accumulation Despite Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 6.6.