Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
BBIO · Why this verdict
Why BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BridgeBio is growing revenue 120% YoY with 41.5% upside to the analyst target, but it burns cash at -45% of revenue, has missed earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, depends on two products and faces insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 120% YoY, with a Rule of 40 score of 75 and a rank as industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY as the launched products ramp. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at this pace comes from a small launch base and depends on two products, so it can fade fast. | ||
The company is cash-burning with free cash flow at -45% of revenue and a quality score of 4.0, at the floor. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin improves from -45% as revenue scales. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued burn may require more financing, diluting holders before profitability arrives. | ||
Results depend on Attruby and Beyonttra, a HIGH concentration risk for a biotech with binary outcomes. Bear case | Both products keep growing without safety or competitive setbacks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCompeting therapies or label problems on either product would cut revenue sharply. | ||
BridgeBio has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -28.2%, and reports in 5 days. Earnings | EPS beats return at the 2026-10-29 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA repeating miss pattern shows analysts struggle to model the launch, and another miss could drive a drop. | ||
The price of $68.56 sits 41.5% below the analyst target of $97.03, with reward-to-risk of 4.99 against 8.3% downside. Targets | Price closes part of the gap to the target as launch revenue grows. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is below the 200-day average in a confirmed downtrend, insiders sold $4.6M, and 11% of float is short. | ||
Revenue is growing 120% YoY, with a Rule of 40 score of 75 and a rank as industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY as the launched products ramp.
CounterGrowth at this pace comes from a small launch base and depends on two products, so it can fade fast.
The company is cash-burning with free cash flow at -45% of revenue and a quality score of 4.0, at the floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin improves from -45% as revenue scales.
CounterContinued burn may require more financing, diluting holders before profitability arrives.
Results depend on Attruby and Beyonttra, a HIGH concentration risk for a biotech with binary outcomes.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Both products keep growing without safety or competitive setbacks.
CounterCompeting therapies or label problems on either product would cut revenue sharply.
BridgeBio has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -28.2%, and reports in 5 days.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats return at the 2026-10-29 report.
CounterA repeating miss pattern shows analysts struggle to model the launch, and another miss could drive a drop.
The price of $68.56 sits 41.5% below the analyst target of $97.03, with reward-to-risk of 4.99 against 8.3% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price closes part of the gap to the target as launch revenue grows.
CounterPrice is below the 200-day average in a confirmed downtrend, insiders sold $4.6M, and 11% of float is short.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -45% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: 75 (elite)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 120% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $4,418,098 (0.032% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 7.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.35
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.64
Upside
+34.3%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 0d<=7d outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 2.64.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Momentum at 5.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.1, Catalyst at 2.5, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Launch
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY from the current 120%.
- P2Cash Burn Despite Growth
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -60% of revenue from the current -45%.
- P3Two Product Concentration
Trip ifAttruby and Beyonttra share of revenue exceeds 90% from the current level.
- P4Weak Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS beats total less than 2 of the next 4 quarters (currently 1 of 4).
- P5Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $64.42 stop level from the current $68.56.