Value
6.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
BATRK · Why this verdict
Why Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. - (BATRK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Atlanta Braves Holdings has a 3-of-4 earnings beat record and 11.1% upside to the analyst target, but a quality score of 0.6, declining revenue, negative cash flow and $15.3M of recent insider selling dominate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves Holdings has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 11 days. Earnings | Beats continue at the 2026-11-04 report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise is -3.6%, so the one miss was large enough to offset the beats. | ||
Quality is very weak at 0.6/10, with free cash flow at -3% of revenue, no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 0/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score improves above 3. | →Stable |
| CounterA zero Piotroski score means every financial-health test fails, which leaves no operating cushion. | ||
Revenue is declining 2% YoY and the growth score is 1.9/10, which is hard to square with the stock's current valuation. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith revenue shrinking and quality weak, there is no earnings growth to support the valuation. | ||
Insiders sold about $15.3M (0.479% of market cap) in 3 sales over 90 days with no purchases, a bearish signal. Insider | Insider selling stops and buying appears at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterA few large sales may reflect liquidity needs rather than a view on the business. | ||
The price of $49.64 sits 11.1% below the analyst target of $55.16, with reward-to-risk of 2.22 against 5.0% downside. Targets | Price closes the 11.1% gap to the target after the earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 1.78 and negative momentum suggest hedging and selling, and the uptrend pullback could extend. | ||
Atlanta Braves Holdings has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with earnings due in 11 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beats continue at the 2026-11-04 report.
CounterThe average surprise is -3.6%, so the one miss was large enough to offset the beats.
Quality is very weak at 0.6/10, with free cash flow at -3% of revenue, no competitive moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 0/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski F-Score improves above 3.
CounterA zero Piotroski score means every financial-health test fails, which leaves no operating cushion.
Revenue is declining 2% YoY and the growth score is 1.9/10, which is hard to square with the stock's current valuation.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive over the next 12 months.
CounterWith revenue shrinking and quality weak, there is no earnings growth to support the valuation.
Insiders sold about $15.3M (0.479% of market cap) in 3 sales over 90 days with no purchases, a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stops and buying appears at current prices.
CounterA few large sales may reflect liquidity needs rather than a view on the business.
The price of $49.64 sits 11.1% below the analyst target of $55.16, with reward-to-risk of 2.22 against 5.0% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price closes the 11.1% gap to the target after the earnings report.
CounterA put/call ratio of 1.78 and negative momentum suggest hedging and selling, and the uptrend pullback could extend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -3% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $15,255,484 (0.477% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.7 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.48%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
1.89
Upside
+9.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Technical at 6.7 and asymmetric R:R of 1.89.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Quality at 0.6, Growth at 1.9, and Peer rank at 2.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS beats total less than 2 of the next 4 quarters (currently 3 of 4).
- P2Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -10% of revenue from the current -3%.
- P3Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -5% YoY from the current -2%.
- P4Insider Distribution
Trip ifInsider sell value exceeds $25M in a trailing 90 days from the current $15.3M.
- P5Modest Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $47.44 stop level from the current $49.64.