Value
3.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
BALY · Why this verdict
Why Bally's (BALY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue growth is strong at 28% year over year, and the peer-ranking data calls the company an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays near or above the current 28% pace over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -179%, showing that top-line growth hasn't been translating into earnings that meet expectations. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -179%, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns. Earnings | The company returns to beating or at least meeting estimates over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock still trades below its analyst price target per the sentiment data, suggesting some analysts see room for the shares to recover despite the miss streak. | ||
Momentum cleared the engine's 5.5 threshold at 6.1, with on-balance volume accumulating and price above the 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum holds above 5.5 and price stays above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe risk/reward setup failed the engine's asymmetry gate with a ratio of -2.2, meaning favorable momentum hasn't translated into an attractive entry point. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.2, with the price target already described as reached (-32.1% versus the original target) and the key risks flagging a rich valuation. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio recovers to a positive reading as the risk/reward setup improves. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum remains favorable at 6.1, above the engine's 5.5 threshold, which could support further price gains even with a stretched valuation. | ||
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -15% of revenue, and the quality assessment flags broader quality concerns, consistent with a quality score below the engine's 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive, or at least less negative than the current -15% of revenue, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong revenue growth of 28% could eventually translate into positive free cash flow as the business scales, even if cash burn persists near-term. | ||
Revenue growth is strong at 28% year over year, and the peer-ranking data calls the company an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays near or above the current 28% pace over the next several quarters.
CounterThe company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -179%, showing that top-line growth hasn't been translating into earnings that meet expectations.
The company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -179%, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to beating or at least meeting estimates over the next several quarters.
CounterThe stock still trades below its analyst price target per the sentiment data, suggesting some analysts see room for the shares to recover despite the miss streak.
Momentum cleared the engine's 5.5 threshold at 6.1, with on-balance volume accumulating and price above the 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum holds above 5.5 and price stays above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterThe risk/reward setup failed the engine's asymmetry gate with a ratio of -2.2, meaning favorable momentum hasn't translated into an attractive entry point.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.2, with the price target already described as reached (-32.1% versus the original target) and the key risks flagging a rich valuation.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio recovers to a positive reading as the risk/reward setup improves.
CounterMomentum remains favorable at 6.1, above the engine's 5.5 threshold, which could support further price gains even with a stretched valuation.
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -15% of revenue, and the quality assessment flags broader quality concerns, consistent with a quality score below the engine's 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive, or at least less negative than the current -15% of revenue, over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong revenue growth of 28% could eventually translate into positive free cash flow as the business scales, even if cash burn persists near-term.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bally's Corporation shows strong revenue growth and favorable near-term momentum, but a negative risk/reward setup, cash burn, and a four-quarter earnings miss streak keep quality concerns front and center.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -15% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.4 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 2.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.64
Upside
-24.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.6, Technical at 6.5, and Peer rank at 5.8; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.0, Quality at 2.5, and Catalyst at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year, down from the current 28% pace.
- P2Favorable Momentum Above 200ma
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 6.1.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Rich Valuation
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 0.0 from the current -2.2.
- P4Cash Burning Quality Concerns
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue rises above 0%, turning positive from the current -15%.
- P5Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.