Value
3.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
BALY · Why this verdict
Why Bally's (BALY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bally's is growing revenue 20% YoY, but the $13.86 price is far above the $8.22 analyst target, cash burn is -23% of revenue, and four straight earnings misses and VIP-player concentration weigh on the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 20% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader, but it is cash-burning with free cash flow at -23% of revenue and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin improves from -23% as growth scales. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth that burns cash and carries weak financial-health scores can require dilution or more debt. | ||
The price of $13.86 is well above the analyst target of $8.22 (upside -40.7%), so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative. Targets | Analysts raise targets toward the current price as results improve over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith price 40.7% beyond the analyst target and a put/call ratio of 2.00, the market may be pricing in a recovery that estimates do not support. | ||
Bally's has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -154%. Earnings | EPS beats return at the 2026-11-09 report. | →Stable |
| CounterA four-quarter miss streak shows persistent forecasting failure, and another miss could reset the stock lower. | ||
VIP players account for 60% of rated casino revenue, which makes results volatile and quality scores weak at 2.2. Bear case | VIP concentration declines from 60% and revenue mix diversifies. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA small number of high rollers can swing quarterly results, and implied volatility of 106% reflects this fragility. | ||
Price is above its 200-day average with a flat slope and rising on-balance volume, suggesting a range-bound base. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and above the $12.89 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA flat average with a recovering death cross offers no trend confirmation, so the base could fail. | ||
Revenue is growing 20% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader, but it is cash-burning with free cash flow at -23% of revenue and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin improves from -23% as growth scales.
CounterGrowth that burns cash and carries weak financial-health scores can require dilution or more debt.
The price of $13.86 is well above the analyst target of $8.22 (upside -40.7%), so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward the current price as results improve over 12 months.
CounterWith price 40.7% beyond the analyst target and a put/call ratio of 2.00, the market may be pricing in a recovery that estimates do not support.
Bally's has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -154%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats return at the 2026-11-09 report.
CounterA four-quarter miss streak shows persistent forecasting failure, and another miss could reset the stock lower.
VIP players account for 60% of rated casino revenue, which makes results volatile and quality scores weak at 2.2.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- VIP concentration declines from 60% and revenue mix diversifies.
CounterA small number of high rollers can swing quarterly results, and implied volatility of 106% reflects this fragility.
Price is above its 200-day average with a flat slope and rising on-balance volume, suggesting a range-bound base.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and above the $12.89 stop.
CounterA flat average with a recovering death cross offers no trend confirmation, so the base could fail.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -23% of revenue
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 20% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 1.0 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 1.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 120%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-4.6=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-4.60
Upside
-39.0%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -4.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of -4.60.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.6, Insider at 6.3, and Peer rank at 6.0; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, and Catalyst at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -4.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifPrice falls below the $12.89 stop level from the current $13.86.
- P2Revenue Growth With Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below -35% of revenue from the current -23%.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS beats total less than 2 of the next 4 quarters (currently 0 of 4).
- P4Vip Customer Concentration
Trip ifVIP player share of rated casino revenue exceeds 70% from the current 60%.
- P5Flat Trend Volume Accumulation
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% YoY from the current 20%.