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AZOAutoZone, Inc.Sell5.4·$3129.62+0.43%
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AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3129.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and... Read more

$3129.62+14.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#17 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.77%
Stop $2962.45Target $3572.44(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$3969.38+26.8%24 analysts
$3572.44our TP
$3129.62price
$3969.38mean
$4800

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3129.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 99d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Sep 22, 202699d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$51.0B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE
Rev Growth8.4%
Beta0.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.44bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$2420-22.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Obv
1.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 99d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2928.11Resistance $3496.76

Price Targets

$2962
$3572
A.Upside+14.1%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-22 (99d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AZO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $3129.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $2962.45. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AZO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $3572.44 (+14.2% upside). Prior stop was $2962.45. Stop-loss: $2962.45.

What are the risks of investing in AZO?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AZO overvalued or undervalued?

AutoZone, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AZO?

32 analysts cover AZO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $3969.

What does AutoZone, Inc. do?We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in...

We began operations in 1979 and at August 30, 2025, operated 6,627 stores in the United States ("U.S."), 883 stores in Mexico and 147 stores in Brazil. Each store carries an extensive product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. At August 30, 2025, in 6,098 of our domestic stores as well as the vast majority of our stores in Mexico and

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